• Skip to content
  • Skip to secondary menu
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

AR Intel

AR Intel takes you beyond the news to give you the full picture of what’s going on in the political world.

  • Features
    • Action Alerts
    • Data Center
    • In The News
  • Member Exclusives
    • Race Briefs
    • Intel Exclusives
  • Subscribe

The Political Edge: Recapping The NC-09 Primary

May 15, 2019

The second primary of the 2020 election cycle took place last night, as voters in North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District turned out to choose who will serve the congressional seat that has been vacant since January. With the primary in the books, AR/Intel compiled the top line information you need to know about the election and what to expect moving forward. In this week’s Political Edge, we also breakdown a new Senate ranking system from FiveThirtyEight and review which 2020 candidates are receiving the most media coverage.

Recapping the NC-09 Primary

Despite having a field of 10 candidates, Republicans avoided heading to a primary runoff in yesterday’s special election for North Carolina’s Ninth District. With 100% precincts reporting, state Sen. Dan Bishop easily won the primary with 47.67% of the vote (14,178). Coming in second with 19.57% (5,820) of the vote was Stony Rushing, a gun-range owner and county commissioner. They were followed by Marine veteran Matthew Ridenhour (17.03%) and realtor Leigh Thomas Brown (8.82%), who received $1.3M in outside support from the National Association of Realtors.

Turnout in the special was extremely low, with only 9.57% of voters heading to the polls. For comparison, the NC-03 special election last week had a turnout of 14.52%.

Bishop will face off against Democrat Dan McCready on September 10, 2019. McCready, who also ran in 2018, is a consultant, investor, and a veteran of the U.S. Marine Corp. He attended Duke University for his undergraduate degree and received an MBA from Harvard Business School in 2011. In 2013, McCready founded Double Time Capital, an investment firm aimed at building “clean American energy.” McCready ran a congressional campaign against Mark Harris in North Carolina’s 9th District in 2018.

“Popularity Above Replacement Senators” Scoring

FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich recently unveiled a new metric designed to measure a senator’s popularity within the context of the partisan lean of their state. Called “Popularity Above Replacement Senator” (PARS), the metric is calculated by measuring the distance between a politician’s net approval rating in their state (based on numbers from The Morning Consult) and the state’s partisan lean.

Rakich asserts that the PARS scoring can be used to give “clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their party’s presidential ticket.” Below are the top fifteen PARS scores, as well as Rakich’s thoughts on several high-profile Senate contests in 2020.

Alabama: Sen. Doug Jones (D) “comes in at No. 2 in PARS with a score of +33. Jones is a Democratic senator in R+27 Alabama, so he’s fighting an uphill battle. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (it’s +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy.”

Maine: “Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. The question is whether the results in 2020 will be closer to her net approval rating or Maine’s light-blue partisanship; splitting the difference yields a race that leans (or tilts) Republican, which is exactly where major election handicappers have it.”

Colorado/Iowa/North Carolina/Texas: Republican Sens. Cory Gardner (CO), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), and John Cornyn (TX) “each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states’ partisan lean. If the Democratic presidential nominee carries their states (admittedly, this will be easier for Colorado than for Texas), the party may get a Senate seat as a bonus.”

Which 2020 Candidates Are Receiving the Most Media Coverage?

Last week, analysts at the media intelligence company Meltwater took a look at media coverage of 2020 Democrats for Politico. Analysts looked at coverage from January 1 to April 30, 2019 and found that Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren accounted for more than half of the primary field’s traditional news media mentions. Additional notes from the analysis are provided below.

  • “Harris and Warren were surpassed only by Sanders in traditional news media mentions, though they announced their candidacies relatively early in the year, giving them more time to amass coverage.”
  • According to the report, “Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker each accounted for 5 percent to 10 percent of the field’s total share of news mentions in the first four months of the year.”
  • Neither Beto O’Rourke nor Pete Buttigieg accounted for more than 5 percent of the field’s news coverage during the first four months of the year.

Filed Under: Data Center, Featured, Features

Reader Interactions

Trackbacks

  1. Race Rundown: The 2020 Field Continues To Grow - AR Intel says:
    May 17, 2019 at 9:31 am

    […] a runoff. He will face Democrat Dan McCready in a general election to be held on September 10. (AR/Intel, […]

  2. 2straighten says:
    January 12, 2022 at 4:37 pm

    1earliest

  3. gay incest chat says:
    January 14, 2022 at 7:39 am

    gay webcam chat https://bjsgaychatroom.info/

  4. free gay dating skwerts says:
    January 14, 2022 at 8:40 am

    which senior gay dating app has most members lakeland fl https://gaypridee.com/

  5. hiv gay chat san diego says:
    January 14, 2022 at 12:13 pm

    online gay chat rooms https://gaytgpost.com/

  6. free boys gay chat says:
    January 14, 2022 at 4:48 pm

    free chat rooms gay chat https://gay-buddies.com/

  7. gay dating 70 says:
    January 15, 2022 at 7:58 am

    xxx dating sim gay https://speedgaydate.com/

  8. free double diamond slots says:
    January 28, 2022 at 10:48 am

    gladiator slots https://2-free-slots.com/

  9. bier haus slots says:
    January 28, 2022 at 4:52 pm

    ceasars slots https://freeonlneslotmachine.com/

  10. triple diamond free slots says:
    January 28, 2022 at 7:59 pm

    cesars slots https://candylandslotmachine.com/

  11. vegas downtown slots says:
    January 28, 2022 at 10:38 pm

    kanomi slots https://pennyslotmachines.org/

  12. games free slots says:
    January 29, 2022 at 4:11 am

    bellagio slots guide https://slotmachinesworld.com/

  13. fre slots online says:
    February 3, 2022 at 11:47 am

    gossip slots tournament https://slotmachinesforum.net/

  14. big win vegas slots says:
    February 3, 2022 at 5:15 pm

    gsn casino slots https://slot-machine-sale.com/

  15. hollywood slots bangor says:
    February 4, 2022 at 12:00 am

    777 slots https://download-slot-machines.com/

  16. best time to play slots says:
    February 4, 2022 at 3:12 am

    free slots home 12345 https://411slotmachine.com/

  17. play free casino slots says:
    February 4, 2022 at 6:39 am

    slots for free https://www-slotmachines.com/

  18. ruby slots casino login says:
    February 4, 2022 at 10:39 am

    borderlands map slots https://slotmachinegameinfo.com/

  19. help-seeking dissertation says:
    February 10, 2022 at 12:13 pm

    dissertation editor https://buydissertationhelp.com/

  20. jill biden doctoral dissertation says:
    February 11, 2022 at 8:51 am

    help me write my dissertation https://dissertationwriting-service.com/

  21. online dissertation help london says:
    February 11, 2022 at 2:12 pm

    dissertation problem statement https://help-with-dissertations.com/

  22. masters dissertation writing says:
    February 11, 2022 at 4:18 pm

    what does dissertation mean https://mydissertationwritinghelp.com/

  23. dissertation help ireland my says:
    February 11, 2022 at 9:39 pm

    best dissertation help service https://dissertations-writing.org/

  24. dissertation writing support says:
    February 12, 2022 at 1:45 am

    doctorate degree without dissertation https://helpon-doctoral-dissertations.net/

Primary Sidebar

Get the Race Rundown

Our free, weekly newsletter is a must-read for campaign insiders.

Race Rundown: Congress Returns To Washington, Welcomes New Senator From Georgia

January 10, 2020

Week In Review: Politicians, Pundits Debate Actions In Iran

January 10, 2020

The Political Edge: Roundup Of Announced Q4 Fundraising Totals

January 9, 2020

Bernie Sanders

2020 Dems: Campaigns Announce Q4 Fundraising Totals Ahead Of Iowa Caucuses

January 7, 2020

Look Ahead: House To Vote On War Powers Resolution As 2020 Session Begins

January 6, 2020

Footer

  • About Us
  • Account
  • Contact
  • Subscribe

About AR/Intel

AR/Intel is a subscription supported political news and analysis website powered by research from America Rising. Subscribers get access to a library of detailed race briefs digging into the most competitive elections in the country. Click here to become a subscriber.

Get the Race Rundown

Our free, weekly must-read email newsletter.

Copyright © 2019 America Rising Corporation | Powered by America Rising Corporation