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The Political Edge: Incumbent Democrats Look To Defend Their Left Flank

The holiday season is in full swing, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t interesting takes being shared by political prognosticators. In this week’s Political Edge, we highlight Democrats who may face primary challenges in the 2020 cycle, give you a topline breakdown of Sabato’s Crystal Ball initial Senate rankings, and go around the map for quick hit analysis nuggets.

Democrat Incumbents That May Face Primary Challengers

Roll Call’s Nathan Gonzalez wrote about several Democrats who could face serious primary threats “as the party fights over ideology and loyalty.” While he notes, “there’s still plenty of time for more intraparty races to take shape,” Gonzalez highlighted several Democrats that may be vulnerable to a primary race this cycle:

  • IL-03: Gonzalez believes “the district most likely to see a competitive Democratic primary is Illinois’ 3rd, considering incumbent Rep. Daniel Lipinski only narrowly defeated Marie Newman 51 percent to 49 percent in this year’s primary.” He notes Lipinski’s anti-abortion position could inspire another challenge.

  • MA-06: Earlier this year, outgoing state Sen. Barbara L’Italien told NBC10 Boston she might challenge Rep. Seth Moulton in 2020. Gonzalez writes, “Moulton has become a fascinating combination of a rising star who supports candidates around the country and a pariah who was part of the public opposition to Nancy Pelosi becoming speaker again.”

  • OR-05: Rep. Kurt Schrader has taken heat for opposing Pelosi. According to Gonzalez, “Milwaukie Mayor Mark Gamba told Oregon Public Broadcasting that it was a mistake for Schrader ‘to be in essence joining sides with the Republicans.’” He has been listed as a possible viable challenger to Schrader, especially if he can tap into the progressive networks of Sen. Bernie Sanders or New York Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

  • Gonzalez also notes that, due to the state’s top-two system primary, “Democrats could also see a batch of competitive primaries once again in California.”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball Releases 2020 Senate Rankings

Sabato’s Crystal Ball released their first ratings for the 2020 Senate races. There are 34 Senate races on the ballot in 2020, with Republicans controlling 22 of them and Democrats holding 12. Their predictions suggest that Republicans will start the cycle favored to hold the Senate, but there is a plausible path for Democrats, particularly if they win the presidential race.

  • The most vulnerable senator from either party is Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), followed by Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). A special election in Arizona also starts as a Toss-up.

  • “In order to win control of the Senate, Democrats will have to net at least three seats. If they did that, the Senate would have an even 50-50 split, with whoever the vice president is in 2021 breaking ties. Without the presidency, Democrats will need to net four seats to win a bare 51-49 majority.”

  • 20 of the 34 Senate seats on the ballot in 2020 begin as rated Safe for the incumbent party.

  • 13 of 22 currently Republican Senate seats start as Safe Republican. That includes 5 of the 9 Senate seats Republicans captured from Democrats in 2014.

  • 7 of the 12 currently Democratic Senate seats start as Safe Democratic: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, and Rhode Island.

  • Overall, in order to win the Senate, Democrats probably will need to win Arizona and Colorado as well as at least a couple of the Lean Republican states: Georgia, Iowa, Maine, or North Carolina.

Quick Hits

  • The Cook Political Report released its first ratings for the 2020 election cycle. The initial ratings show Democrats with a head start in 219 races, Republicans with an advantage in 196 seats and 20 Toss Ups. Of the 20 Toss Ups, 16 will be held by Democrats and 4 by Republicans.

  • FiveThirtyEight provided some excellent data analysis about how Democrats’ support in rural areas has sharply declined.

  • An analysis of exit polls by The New York Times found that in 2018, 56% of voters were over age 50, and 26% were 65 or over. By comparison, voters under age 30 accounted for just 13%. Furthermore, those 50-plus voters split their votes evenly between Democrats and Republicans.

  • Sabato’s Crystal Ball provided an interesting insight about the 2018 Senate races and partisan alignment: “The 2018 results brought the Senate map further into partisan alignment. Going into the election, only 15 senators represented states that their party’s presidential candidate lost in the 2016 presidential election. Of those 15, 11 were on the ballot in 2018, and the results reduced the total number of crossover senators by four, to just 11 total.”

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