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The Political Edge: Checking In On House Retirements

October 9, 2019

Through the first ten months of the year, 17 House Republicans have announced they will not seek reelection next year and another three resigned from their posts early. As Republicans announced their exits, media outlets were quick to post stories about Republican “struggles” with the “retirement wave.” These new open seats, the narrative suggests, are prime pick up opportunities for Democrats as they look to expand their majority in 2020.

A dive into exactly who is retiring, however, paints a different picture. While it’s true that more Republicans are retiring than Democrats, the vast majority of those Representatives hail from conservative districts. Of the 20 retirements/resignations the GOP is facing, only one seat has a PVI of R+5 or less. In fact, the average PVI of all the open Republican districts in 2020 is R+15.

Open seats present a challenge, as the retiring member’s party must identify and recruit a new candidate to run and then educate the district about who they are. However, those challenges also exist for the opposing party. Democrats may want the public to believe that the spate of GOP retirements presents a big opportunity for them in 2020, but the fundamentals of the up-for-grab Districts still favor Republicans.

Here is the current breakdown of open House seats in 2020:

Open Seats in November 2020: 17 GOP / 5 Dem (22 Total)

MEMBERDISTRICTPVIREASON
Republican:: Rob WoodallGA-07R+9Retiring
Republican:: Rob BishopUT-01R+26Retiring
Republican:: Susan BrooksIN-05R+9Retiring
Republican:: Bradley ByrneAL-01R+15Running for U.S. Senate
Republican:: Greg GianforteMT-ALR+11Running for Governor
Democrat:: Jose SerranoNY-15D+44Retiring
Democrat:: Dave LoebsackIA-02D+1Retiring
Democrat:: Ben Ray LujanNM-03D+8Running For U.S. Senate
Republican:: Paul MitchellMI-10R+13Retiring
Republican:: Mike ConawayTX-11R+32Retiring
Republican:: Pete OlsonTX-22R+10Retiring
Republican:: Will HurdTX-23R+1Retiring
Republican:: Kenny MarchantTX-24R+9Retiring
Republican:: Martha RobyAL-02R+16Retiring
Republican:: John ShimkusIL-15R+21Retiring
Republican:: Bill FloresTX-17R+21Retiring
Democrat:: Susan DavisCA-53D+14Retiring
Republican:: Jim SensenbrennerWI-05R+13Retiring
Republican:: Paul CookCA-08R+9Retiring
Republican:: Roger MarshallKS-01R+24Running for U.S. Senate
Democrat:: Joe KennedyMA-04D+9Running for U.S. Senate
Republican:: Mac ThornberryTX-13R+33Retiring
Democrat:: Nita LoweyNY-17D+7Retiring
Republican:: Francis RooneyFL-19R+13Retiring
Republican:: Greg WaldenOR-02R+11Retiring
Democrat:: Pete ViscloskyIN-01D+8Retiring
Republican:: Peter KingNY-02R+3Retiring
Republican:: George HoldingNC-02R+7Retiring
Democrat:: Denny HeckWA-10D+5Retiring
Republican:: Tom GravesGA-14R+27Retiring
Republican:: Ted YohoFL-03R+9Retiring
Republican:: Mark WalkerNC-06R+9Retiring
Republican:: Mark MeadowsNC-11R+14Retiring

NOTE: Does not include special elections for three congressmen who resigned early: Reps. Tom Marino (R-PA-12), Sean Duffy (R-WI-07), and Chris Collins (R-NY-27). Also does not include Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC-03), who passed away in February 2019.

Filed Under: Data Center, Featured, Features

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