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The Political Edge: A Profile On Suburban Voters

In this week’s Political Edge, we highlight some findings from a survey conducted on suburban voters, look at an analysis of Presidential success for Senators, and breakdown the latest House ratings by Roll Call’s Nathan Gonzalez.

The Suburban Voter

In the wake of the 2018 election, much was made about the impact of suburban voters. According to a study by CityLab, a significant amount of the 40 districts Democrats flipped last year were classified as suburban. The University of Chicago Harris School for Public Policy and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research recently released a survey highlighting what makes a suburban voter tick. Highlights from the survey are below:

  • “Fewer suburbanites describe themselves as politically independent than do residents of the nation’s urban and rural areas.”

  • “The poll also found that the partisan leanings of suburban residents are closely linked to whether they have previously lived in a city… Suburbanites who previously lived in a city are about as likely as city-dwellers to call themselves Democrats, the survey found. Similarly, Americans living in suburbs who have never resided in an urban area are about as likely as rural residents to say they are Republican.”

  • “Just 15 percent of suburban Americans say they are independent and do not lean toward a party, compared with 25 percent of urban Americans and 30 percent of rural Americans who call themselves politically independent.”

  • “About 6 in 10 urban residents and ex-urban suburbanites say that the way things are going in the U.S. will worsen this year, while less than half of rural residents or suburbanites with no city experience believe the same.”

Success Rates Of Senators Running For President

There are currently six U.S. Senators running for President and at least two more could potentially jump in. With such a large field running, Roll Call’s Stuart Rothenberg did some research to find out how Senators usually fare in Presidential elections.

  • Rothenberg looked at the last 15 presidential elections and the last 30 nominees by the two major parties going back to 1960. He found that only eight of the 30 nominees were sitting or former senators.

  • Of the last 15 presidential election winners, only two were senators.

  • Conversely, of the 15 nominees who lost, six were sitting or former senators.

Inside Election House Ratings

This week Roll Call’s Nathan Gonzalez joined The Cook Political Report and other election forecasters by releasing his initial ratings for the 2020 House Races. Republicans will need a net gain of 18 or 19 seats to regain control of the House next year. Gonzalez has identified 39 vulnerable Democratic seats and 29 vulnerable Republican ones. In addition to his ratings, Gonzalez provided some additional analysis that is interesting. Highlights from his post are below.

  • “The GOP has gained House seats in just one of the last six presidential elections — in 2004, when President George W. Bush’s job approval rating was about 10 points better than where Trump’s is now. And a similar 3-seat pickup wouldn’t be enough for a majority this time.”

  • “Republicans have gained 18 House seats or more in just one presidential election in the last 50 years. They picked up 34 seats in 1980 but still remained in the minority because their numbers were so depressed coming into that election.”

  • “Democrats will be looking for a repeat of 2008, when they gained 20 seats in a presidential cycle on the heels of a 31-seat pickup in the preceding midterms. But that won’t be easy considering they won much of the low-hanging fruit in 2018, and Republicans in districts Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 are down to just three — New York’s John Katko, Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick and Texas’ Will Hurd.”

  • “Democrats knocked off strong GOP incumbents Erik Paulsen(Minnesota’s 3rd), Barbara Comstock (Virginia’s 10th), Mike Coffman (Colorado’s 6th) and Carlos Curbelo (Florida’s 26th) in November. Ahead of 2020, their districts aren’t even on our initial list of competitive seats. Open seats that Republicans lost last fall — including Florida’s 27th, Washington’s 8th and California’s 49th — are also rated Solid Democratic for now, based on how poorly Trump performed in those districts in 2016.”

  • “Republicans will have a second chance at districts where Trump is more popular. Our initial ratings show Joe Cunningham (South Carolina’s 1st), Kendra Horn (Oklahoma’s 5th), Ben McAdams (Utah’s 4th), Anthony Brindisi (New York’s 22nd), Max Rose (New York’s 11th), Lauren Underwood (Illinois’ 14th) and Cindy Axne (Iowa’s 3rd) all in Toss-up races.”

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