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The Political Edge: 2020 Political Advertising Expected To Break Records

The second quarter of 2019 came to a close on Sunday, and candidates are beginning to announce their fundraising hauls, which feature some eye-popping numbers. Those numbers seem to support a new study from Advertising Analytics that predicts TV and digital ads for the 2020 election will smash previous records. In this week’s Political Edge, we highlight the main takeaways from that analysis and round up all the announced fundraising numbers from presidential and Senate candidates.

Political Advertising in 2020 is Expected to Smash Records

A new study from Advertising Analytics, a political ad-tracking firm, predicts the total cost of TV and digital ads for the next election will exceed $6 billion — a 57 percent increase over the total in last year’s midterm elections. Based on their research, below are some main takeaways on what to expect in the world of political advertising as we approach the 2020 election.

  • The increase in spending is expected to be driven by a huge jump in digital video advertising. According to the study, over one-quarter of the $6 billion total, $1.6 billion, will be spent on digital video platforms, primarily Facebook and Google.

  • Nearly $4.4 billion is expected to be spent on broadcast and cable TV, more than twice as much as Democrats and Republicans spent on TV in the last presidential election.

  • For the presidential general election, Advertising Analytics projects spending in two swing states alone (Florida and Pennsylvania) will top $600 million combined. The group also predicts that Arizona will draw $141 million in advertising, Michigan will draw $121 million, Wisconsin will draw $67 million, and Ohio will draw $39 million.

  • Senate races are predicted to see a dip in spending next year by about 14 percent compared to 2018. However, the firm expects advertising costs in Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Kentucky, Maine and Georgia to exceed $50 million per state.

  • According to Advertising Analytics, congressional races for the House of Representatives will account for around $1 billion, breaking the record set in 2018. The group estimates that 10 House races will feature more than $10 million of advertising in 2020, an increase from the six House races that totaled eight figures in 2018. Advertising Analytics expects that more than a third of the spending in House races, totaling $390 million, will be directed at Democrats that are representing congressional districts Trump won in 2016.

Announced Q2 Fundraising

Candidates have until July 15 to fully report their Q2 numbers, but that hasn’t stopped some from preemptively announcing their hauls early. AR/Intel will have a more comprehensive breakdown of the finalized Q2 numbers when they are released, however a list of the announced numbers so far can be found below.

Presidential

Senate/Arizona

Senate/Colorado

Senate/Iowa

Senate/Maine

Senate/New Mexico

Senate/South Carolina

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