In this week’s Political Edge, we first take a look at a new analysis breaking down turnout in 2018 before turning our attention to 2020, when recent electoral college trends may hold the key to victory next November.
2018 Turnout Analysis
The November 2018 midterm election saw record turnout, with the highest number of eligible voters going to the polls in a midterm since 1913. Recently, the U.S. Elections Project and Nonprofit VOTE released an analysis breaking down the turnout. Below are some key takeaways from their report:
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Turnout in the 2018 election was 50.3%, 13.6 percentage points higher than the 36.7% turnout in 2014. It was the largest increase from a previous midterm in U.S. history. The turnout stands in stark contrast to the 2014 midterm election, when the nation had the lowest midterm turnout rate since 1942.
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2018 marked the first time more than 100 million Americans cast a ballot in a non-presidential year. 118,532,829 ballots were cast and counted – 35 million more than the 83.2 million ballots cast in 2014.
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“35 states had their highest midterm turnout in at least 40 years, since the U.S. Elections Project started tracking official state turnout in 1980. Every state except Alaska and Louisiana saw an increase in midterm turnout over 2014.”
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Top 5: Minnesota (64.2%), Colorado (63%), Montana (62%), Wisconsin (61.7%), and Oregon (61.5%)
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Bottom 5: Mississippi (42.7%), Oklahoma (42.5%), West Virginia (42.5%), Arkansas (41.4%), Hawaii (39.3%).
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“Young voters ages 18-29 had their highest turnout in a quarter of a century and an historic increase in voting over a most recent midterm. Turnout went up an estimated 11 percentage points over 2014. It was the largest increase in the youth vote over the previous midterm since 18-year olds gained the right to vote in 1971.”
Electoral College Trends
As the 2020 presidential election creeps closer, forecasters have begun looking at electoral trends that may give insight into what to expect next November. Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, recently published an analysis looking at electoral college trends from 2000 to 2016 and which party is gaining traction. Although some states may be trending toward one party, however, it doesn’t mean that they are truly competitive. He writes:
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“Despite persistently close presidential elections this century, many states have been becoming dramatically more Democratic or Republican compared to the nation over the course of the last decade and a half.”
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“Generally speaking, the Sun Belt and West are trending Democratic. The Midwest and North more broadly, along with Greater Appalachia, are trending Republican.”
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“Generally speaking, much of the West and parts of the South were more Democratic relative to the national voting in 2016 than they were in 2000, while much of the Midwest, Greater Appalachia, and New England were more Republican relative to the nation in 2016 than they were in 2000.”
The map below compares the presidential deviations of each state in 2000 to 2016.
