Top Counties to Watch on Election Night 2018 (Part 1)
Election night can be overwhelming. Polls close at different times across the country, and in some cases, different times across the same state. With Senate, gubernatorial, House, and state legislative race results coming in simultaneously, it can be difficult to know where to look for early indicators of how the night may go.
AR Intel went state by state and highlighted the most important counties to watch in each key Senate state. We’ve broken down the results into two posts – the first below, posted on Monday, and the second will go up Tuesday morning.
If you want to learn about the key swing counties and Dem/GOP strongholds in each key Senate state, subscriber to AR Intel today! Sign up for free and enjoy a 7-day trial on us!
SENATE POLL ROUND-UP: Republicans Ahead in Indiana, Missouri
It’s no surprise that this week, the last one before the midterm elections on November 6, contained a whole slew of new polls focused on Senate races. Early voting is already underway in many states, and pollsters are now asking respondents if they have already voted, in addition to their candidate preferences.
Republicans are coming on strong in Indiana and Missouri, while Florida remains as close as ever. Meanwhile, Republicans are within striking distance in Arizona and Montana.
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Senate Poll Round-Up: Republicans Ahead in AZ, MO, Close in NJ, MN
Polls are rolling in at an incredibly rate this week. With officially less than two weeks to go until Election Day, pollsters are eager to get their final surveys in the field in time to report the results, and some of those are beginning to pop up in the press now.
Republicans are up in states like Arizona, Florida, Indiana, and Missouri, but some polls also show Democrats leading in a couple of those races, too. Essentially these polls show that voters can expect a late night and some close races comes November 6th.
In somewhat surprising news, Republicans trail Democrats by five- and six-point margins respectively in New Jersey and Minnesota. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) continues to be plagued by his 2017 federal corruption trial, while Democrat Tina Smith was a no-show at a Senate debate in Minnesota earlier this week.
To get access this week’s state-by-state breakdown of polls, sign up for AR Intel today!
Senate Democrats’ Q3 Fundraising Totals & Cash on Hand
The Federal Election Commission’s (FEC) final deadline before Election Day has come and gone, meaning we now know exactly what Senate Democrats in battleground states raised and spent in the third quarter of the year. It also means we know how much they had in the bank at the start of the final month of the campaign.
Democrats in Ohio and Missouri took the top spots for each of the fundraising categories in AR Intel’s breakdown.
To see the full breakdown, sign up for a free trial of AR Intel today!
AR Intel Week Ahead: 10-15-18
With just three weeks until Election Day, debate season is in full gear in House and Senate races. Senate debates for Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, and Wisconsin are all taking place this week, along with key House races in Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, and Nebraska, among many others.
Meanwhile, President Trump is hitting the road on behalf of candidates across the country. He’s in Florida Monday, surveying damage done to the panhandle coast by Hurricane Michael, and then handing out the medal of honor on Wednesday. He’ll hold rallies in Montana and Arizona later in the week.
For further details on these updates and much more, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel!
Senate Poll Round-Up: GOP Up Big in ND, Surprisingly Close in NJ, & More
With exactly five weeks until Election Day, AR Intel is taking now monitoring Senate polls more closely than ever. This week’s round-up is designed to get you up to speed on where the candidate’s stand in some of the tightest Senate races across the country this particular week.
While a poll should be viewed as a snapshot in time, trends in polls can often be more telling than the actual results themselves. AR Intel will work to not just report the latest numbers but report on what’s happening in the races that matter most.
To view the full round-up, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel by clicking here.
Fox News: Dem Sen. Tester campaigns on hunting, hasn’t had license in 6 years
Montana Sen. Jon Tester, a red state Democrat running for re-election in one of the closest Senate contests this year, has campaigned as a big hunting proponent, sending out mailers to voters that show him on his farm with his gun in hand.
“As we gear up for hunting season, Montanans know that hunting isn’t just a sport – it feeds our families, and it creates lifelong memories with our kids and grandkids,” Tester says in the campaign flier. “Montanans are lucky to have some of the best access, longest seasons and greatest hunting in the world.”
But according to Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks records reviewed by Fox News, Tester hasn’t had a hunting license in six years. He last had one in 2012 – the same year he was last on the ballot.
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Roll Call: Republican Poll Shows Tight Race For Montana Senate
A new poll, conducted by WPA Intelligence and released by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, shows Republican Matt Rosendale leading Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in a closely watched Senate race. To read more about this poll, become an AR Intel Insider to sign up for a 7-day free trial here.
Republicans Hold Data Advantage in Montana Midterms
Even before polling places closed the night of Montana’s special congressional election, the ground team for the Republican National Committee was challenging the press to call the race.
“Just call it,” the RNC staffers said to the press seated in the back of Bozeman’s Hilton Garden Inn conference room, the site of Greg Gianforte’s election night party. They weren’t just calling the race. RNC staffers were naming the counties they were certain they’d won, particularly Cascade, which typically lights up blue on election night. Cascade is a county Democrats usually have to win in order to prevail in statewide races.
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Senate Democrats’ Q2 Fundraising Numbers
Red state Democrats will need all the help they can get in the final months leading up to the midterm elections this November. AR Intel has been consistently tracking the fundraising totals of Senate Democrats running in states won by President Trump in the 2016 election.
Many of these incumbents are running for their third or fourth term, but few have faced an environment as challenging as this one. Trump won several of the states that these Democrats represent by larger than 20-point margins.
So, how well did Democrats do in the second quarter of 2018? To find out and get exclusive access to AR Intel’s Q2 fundraising infographic, sign up today!