The Political Edge: The 2018 House Candidates We May See In 2020
In this week’s edition of The Political Edge, we take a look at the failed 2018 House candidates who are now weighing Senate bids. Additionally, we breakdown an analysis from The New York Times highlighting the unprecedented number of Democrats who have announced their candidacy for President nearly 100 weeks before the election.
Failed House Candidates Running For Senate In 2020
On Tuesday, Roll Call’s Simone Pathé posted a new article highlighting several 2018 House Democratic candidates who are now considering a run for U.S. Senate. Below is a rundown of the candidates who are contemplating a Senate bid, according to Pathé.
J.D. Scholten – Scholten ran an unsuccessful campaign against Rep. Steve King in IA-04 last year, losing by 3.3 points. He is considering a challenge to Iowa’s Sen. Joni Ernst. Scholten ended 2018 with $75,000 on hand.
Amy McGrath – In 2018, McGrath lost the KY-06 Congressional race to Rep. Andy Barr by 3.2 points. Reports indicate that now Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer is trying to recruit her to run against Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. McGrath ended 2018 with $268,000 on hand.
Jon Ossoff – Ossoff lost the 2017 special election in GA-07 to Karen Handel by 3.8 points. He recently said he would back Stacey Abrams for Senate, but isn’t “ruling anything out if she decides against” challenging Republican incumbent David Perdue. Ossoff ended 2018 with $392,000 on hand.
MJ Hegar – Last year, Hegar lost a close race to Rep. John Carter in TX-31 by 2.9 points. She is said to be considering a bid against Sen. John Cornyn in Texas next year. Hegar ended 2018 with $47,000 on hand.
Joseph Kopser – Kopser lost the race to replace retiring Rep. Lamar Smith (TX-21) by 2.6 points last year. Like Hegar, he is said to be considering a bid against Cornyn in Texas next year. Kopser ended 2018 with $9,000 on hand.
The Presidential Primary Is Crowded Early
Two months into 2019 and there are currently 11 Democrats running for President. With more candidates expected to announce over the coming weeks months, The New York Times conducted an analysis comparing the number of Democrats currently running to years past. If it feels like the field has grown quickly and early, it’s because it has.
According to the analysis, “the Democratic presidential field for 2020 is more crowded than typical for this early in an election cycle.” At this point in 2008 there were eight candidates running, the previous high for candidates running this early.
The Democratic field also appears to be getting crowded much sooner than the 2016 Republican field, which hit a modern political record with 17 major candidates at its peak.
OFA Just Announced 27 “Priority” Districts for 2018. How Does That Stack Up to CLF?
Organizing For Action (OFA), the remnants of former President Obama’s campaign operation, announced this week that it is “prioritizing 27 districts” currently held by Republicans.
“OFA volunteer teams will organize in each district to amplify support on the ground for candidates who will actually fight for their constituents,” a statement from OFA read.
The full list of districts includes several where Donald Trump did better than Hillary Clinton. It does not include all the seats held by Republicans in districts where Clinton beat Trump, which Democrats tend to see as their best opportunities for pick-ups in November.
What exactly “prioritizing” means is unclear. What’s clearer is what’s happening on the other side of the aisle. Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), the super PAC closely associated with Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), appears to be beating the Democrats at their own game.
To learn in which districts each group is operating and how they compare, become an AR Intel Insider today!
Primaries in Georgia, Kentucky & Arkansas (And a Runoff in Texas, to Boot!) – Here’s Who to Follow
As the returns roll in Tuesday night, be sure to stay up to date on the latest news from the primaries in Georgia, Kentucky, and Arkansas, and the runoff election in Texas!
AR Intel has you covered with lists of key reporters and politicos from this week’s primary states. Want to see the list? Become an AR Intel Insider today!
Media Round Up: What to Watch for in Tuesday’s Primaries and Runoffs
Primary voters in Kentucky, Arkansas, and Georgia are heading to the polls, and Texans are participating in a runoff election on Tuesday. Nearly every media outlet published a “what to watch for” story, and AR Intel culled the best excerpts from each.
Get caught up on Texas’s 7th Congressional District Democrat runoff, the Georgia governor’s race, and much more by becoming an AR Intel Insider. Click here for details.
30 Days Of Crucial Democratic House Primaries
The next thirty days will provide key answers for Democrats’ attempts to take back the House, as more than a dozen states hold primaries and runoffs to determine general election nominees. Will the DCCC’s preferred candidates survive primary challenges from progressives? Will Democrats even have a candidate on the ballot come November?
One thing is for certain, as these primaries come to a close, they will only become nastier, more divisive, and a bigger problem for Nancy Pelosi and House leadership.
To see a full breakdown of the next 30 days of Democratic primaries, you must subscribe to AR Intel. Sign up here!
Morning Consult: America’s Most and Least Popular Senators
2018’s first quarter was a volatile one for several senators, with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle seeing significant changes in levels of support from their constituents, according to the latest Morning Consult Senator Approval Rankings.
To see those more about those rankings, become an AR Intel Insider today!
Democrats’ Jan. & Feb. Online Fundraising: By The Numbers
While the political world awaits candidates’ fundraising totals from the first quarter of 2018, the Democrats’ online fundraising operation, known as Act Blue, published disclosures for the first two months of the year.
Unsurprisingly, the top recipient of online money through Act Blue was Pennsylvania Democrat Conor Lamb, who on March 13 won a nationalized special election contest in suburban Pittsburgh to replace Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA).
To find out how much he raised and see how other candidates fared, become an AR Intel Insider today.