2018 Midterms: What We Still Don’t Know, Part 2
Two days after the 2018 midterm elections, quite a few races are still up in the air, and the final make-up of the U.S. Congress is still in question. AR Intel is breaking down where things stand in the Senate and House races that still have not been called.
To gain access to that political intelligence, sign up for a free, 7-day trial of AR Intel by subscribing here today!
Top Counties to Watch on Election Night 2018 (Part 1)
Election night can be overwhelming. Polls close at different times across the country, and in some cases, different times across the same state. With Senate, gubernatorial, House, and state legislative race results coming in simultaneously, it can be difficult to know where to look for early indicators of how the night may go.
AR Intel went state by state and highlighted the most important counties to watch in each key Senate state. We’ve broken down the results into two posts – the first below, posted on Monday, and the second will go up Tuesday morning.
If you want to learn about the key swing counties and Dem/GOP strongholds in each key Senate state, subscriber to AR Intel today! Sign up for free and enjoy a 7-day trial on us!
SENATE POLL ROUND-UP: Republicans Ahead in Indiana, Missouri
It’s no surprise that this week, the last one before the midterm elections on November 6, contained a whole slew of new polls focused on Senate races. Early voting is already underway in many states, and pollsters are now asking respondents if they have already voted, in addition to their candidate preferences.
Republicans are coming on strong in Indiana and Missouri, while Florida remains as close as ever. Meanwhile, Republicans are within striking distance in Arizona and Montana.
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Senate Poll Round-Up: Republicans Ahead in AZ, MO, Close in NJ, MN
Polls are rolling in at an incredibly rate this week. With officially less than two weeks to go until Election Day, pollsters are eager to get their final surveys in the field in time to report the results, and some of those are beginning to pop up in the press now.
Republicans are up in states like Arizona, Florida, Indiana, and Missouri, but some polls also show Democrats leading in a couple of those races, too. Essentially these polls show that voters can expect a late night and some close races comes November 6th.
In somewhat surprising news, Republicans trail Democrats by five- and six-point margins respectively in New Jersey and Minnesota. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) continues to be plagued by his 2017 federal corruption trial, while Democrat Tina Smith was a no-show at a Senate debate in Minnesota earlier this week.
To get access this week’s state-by-state breakdown of polls, sign up for AR Intel today!
Senate Democrats’ Q3 Fundraising Totals & Cash on Hand
The Federal Election Commission’s (FEC) final deadline before Election Day has come and gone, meaning we now know exactly what Senate Democrats in battleground states raised and spent in the third quarter of the year. It also means we know how much they had in the bank at the start of the final month of the campaign.
Democrats in Ohio and Missouri took the top spots for each of the fundraising categories in AR Intel’s breakdown.
To see the full breakdown, sign up for a free trial of AR Intel today!
AR Intel Week Ahead: 10-15-18
With just three weeks until Election Day, debate season is in full gear in House and Senate races. Senate debates for Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, and Wisconsin are all taking place this week, along with key House races in Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, and Nebraska, among many others.
Meanwhile, President Trump is hitting the road on behalf of candidates across the country. He’s in Florida Monday, surveying damage done to the panhandle coast by Hurricane Michael, and then handing out the medal of honor on Wednesday. He’ll hold rallies in Montana and Arizona later in the week.
For further details on these updates and much more, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel!
Senate Poll Round-Up: Republicans Ahead in AZ, NV, TN, Tied in MO
It’s been another week and another flurry of Senate polls! By far Arizona was the most polled state this week with four newly released polls in the past seven days. The most recent poll shows Republican Martha McSally leading her Democrat opponent.
Republicans are also leading in contests in Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. And keep a close eye on Missouri – the latest poll, conducted by Fox News, shows Republican Josh Hawley tied with Democrat Claire McCaskill. But the RealClearPolitics polling average now favors Hawley, meaning that the contest could be trending in the Republican’s direction.
To see the full slate of Senate poll results, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel today!
AR Intel’s 2018 Midterm Debate Look Ahead
It’s officially debate season! House and Senate candidates across the country are taking the debate stage, looking into television camera lenses, and telling voters what exactly it is they will do in office.
Given the sheer number of closely-watched races, let alone the number of debates for each race, AR Intel compiled a list of debates in some of the most critical races this fall. Take a look below of October’s “Must See TV” debates, and let us know in the comments section if we missed one important to you!
To view the AR Intel debate look ahead, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel today!
Five GOP Women Running for Congress You Could Support in the Last Five Weeks
With less than five weeks to go until Election Day, we’re finally in the final stretch of the 2018 midterms. The House is in recess until mid-November, meaning incumbents and challengers alike are hitting the campaign trail in earnest.
And while Democratic women so often get the spotlight in the mainstream media, this cycle marks perhaps the strongest group of GOP women candidates to ever run for office. When AR Intel spoke to Winning for Women’s Rebecca Schuller back in June, the executive director of the center-right group said the media’s “Year of the Woman” narrative was largely viewed “through a liberal lens.”
But in states red and blue alike, Republican women came out in droves this year to run for Congress, and many of them will win. To learn more about GOP women candidates you can support, check out AR Intel’s list highlighting five strong candidates below:
Rep. Barbara Comstock – Virginia’s 10th Congressional District
Comstock is locked in a tough battle with liberal Democrat Jennifer Wexton. The pair faced off in a debate last month, and Comstock demonstrated her “mastery of local concerns,” as the Washington Post put it. On the other hand, The Post noted that Wexton often read from note cards during the debate and “occasionally stumbled” through answers.
Comstock has worked hard to close the gap with Wexton from a June poll that showed the Democrat 10 points up. A poll released Tuesday showed Wexton ahead by just 6 points. But that result is actually within the poll’s margin of error, which was reported as between 5.1 and 7.2 percentage points.
To donate to Comstock’s campaign, click here.
Rep. Claudia Tenney – New York’s 22nd Congressional District
Tenney is a freshman congresswoman running for reelection in a toss-up district. While Trump won the district by 15 points in 2016, Gov. Mitt Romney defeated President Obama by less than a percentage point in 2012. The Cook Political Report gives the district an R+6 rating, and Tenney won her seat by a five-point margin last cycle.
Tenney has aligned herself with President Trump, who came to her district for a fundraiser in August.
Tenney is facing Democrat Anthony Brindisi, who did not face a challenger in the primary. Brindisi has been a strong fundraiser, but Tenney was able to pull in $1 million during the second quarter of 2018. Tenney argues she has been outspent in previous campaigns but prevails because she’s focused on grassroots efforts.
To help Tenney’s campaign with a donation, click here.
Maria Elvira Salazar – Florida’s 27th Congressional District
Salazar is running to replace long-time Miami congresswoman, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL). Many assumed when Ros-Lehtinen announced her retirement that the district would automatically go to Democrats, but Salazar has run an impressive campaign. Voters in the district are likely familiar with her, as she previously worked for a local TV station, MegaTV, as well as Telemundo and CNN En Español. About 57 percent of the district’s registered voters are Latino, and as the New York Times notes, “Most of them are Cuban-American, as is Ms. Salazar.”
Salazar is facing former HHS Secretary under President Clinton, Donna Shalala, who also served as president of the University of Miami. Shalala’s entrance into the Democratic primary scared away some strong candidates, but her lackluster campaign has not inspired confidence in her party’s leadership.
Salazar’s internal polling shows her leading Shalala. To support Salazar’s campaign visit her campaign website here.
Mimi Walters – California’s 45th Congressional District
Walters first won this Orange County seat in 2014 and is facing perhaps her toughest challenge yet in Democrat Katie Porter. The district is just narrowly Republican, according to the Cook Political Report, but Hillary Clinton won the district in 2016. Inside Elections rates the race as a toss-up.
Former President Obama attended a rally in support of Porter and other southern California Democrats last month.
A recent Democrat-sponsored poll showed Walters and Porter virtually tied, 47-48.
To contribute to Walters’ campaign, click here.
Diane Harkey – California’s 49th Congressional District
Harkey is facing off against Democrat Mike Levin in this San Diego-based district. The two are competing for the seat that will be vacated by retiring Rep. Darrell Issa. They also have competing endorsements – Harkey’s from President Trump and Levin’s from former President Obama.
During a recent debate, Levin was backed into a corner on the topic of impeachment when he was forced to say he’s not necessarily seeking impeachment, but “justice and the truth.” During that same debate, Harkey reiterated her support for Trump’s border wall, saying it’s “a necessity” to keep criminals and gang members out of the U.S.
To support Harkey’s campaign, click here.
Senate Poll Round-Up: GOP Up Big in ND, Surprisingly Close in NJ, & More
With exactly five weeks until Election Day, AR Intel is taking now monitoring Senate polls more closely than ever. This week’s round-up is designed to get you up to speed on where the candidate’s stand in some of the tightest Senate races across the country this particular week.
While a poll should be viewed as a snapshot in time, trends in polls can often be more telling than the actual results themselves. AR Intel will work to not just report the latest numbers but report on what’s happening in the races that matter most.
To view the full round-up, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel by clicking here.