Welcome to the AR/Intel Race Rundown, our weekly recap of the most important news happening in campaigns across the country. Sign up to get the Race Rundown delivered to your inbox every Friday morning here.
NATIONAL
Billionaire Tom Steyer launched a $1 million ad campaign urging Democratic leaders to initiate impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. (The Huffington Post, 5/16/19)
PRESIDENTIAL
Montana Gov. Steve Bullock announced his presidential candidacy Tuesday morning, joining a growing field of twenty-plus Democrats seeking to challenge President Trump in 2020. (Politico, 5/14/19)
- Bullock’s campaign announced that he raised $1 million from voters in all 50 states in the 24 hours after he launched presidential bid. (CNN, 5/15/19)
Bill de Blasio, the Democratic mayor of New York City, announced on Thursday that he was running for president. (The New York Times, 5/16/19)
This week, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez named Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as two 2020 candidates who could get her endorsement in the Democratic primary. (The Washington Examiner, 5/10/19)
POLL: The latest Morning Consult poll of Democratic primary voters found former Vice President Joe Biden leading the field for President with support from 39% of those polled. He is followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (19%), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (8%), Sen. Kamala Harris (8%), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (6%). (Morning Consult, 5/13/19)
POLL: A new Emerson poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading the field for President with support from 33% of primary voters. He is followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (25%), Sen. Kamala Harris (10%), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (10%), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (8%). (Emerson Polling, 5/14/19)
SENATE NATIONAL
U.S. Sen. Martha McSally (D-AZ)
The DSCC is launching digital ads targeting seven Senate Republicans for their votes in favor of the 2017 tax overhaul. The five-figure ad campaign targets include Sens. Susan Collins (ME), Martha McSally (AZ), Joni Ernst (IA), David Perdue (GA), Cory Gardner (CO), Thom Tillis (NC) and John Cornyn (TX). (The Hill, 5/14/19)
SENATE ARIZONA
A new poll from Phoenix-based pollster OH Predictive Insights, shows Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) drawing 45% of the vote compared with 44% for Democrat challenger Mark Kelly. (The Hill, 5/13/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Check out our new Arizona Senate Race Brief for everything you need to know about this competitive election.
SENATE GEORGIA
America First Action, a super PAC endorsed by President Trump, has identified Georgia as one of six “priority states.” (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 5/17/19)
SENATE IOWA
Democrat Kimberly Graham, an attorney, has announced she is running for the U.S. Senate, becoming the first candidate challenging incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst. (Little Village, 5/13/19)
Cedar Rapids Gazette: “Iowa Democratic Chief Predicts ‘Spirited Primary’ For U.S. Senate Race” (Cedar Rapids Gazette, 5/16/19)
SENATE KENTUCKY
The left-leaning VoteVets is attempting to convince former Marine pilot Amy McGrath to launch a 2020 challenge against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). (The Washington Times, 5/14/19)
SENATE MONTANA
Wilmot Collins, a refugee from the African nation of Liberia who became the first black mayor of a Montana city, announced that he is seeking the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate. (The Associated Press, 5/13/19)
Michael Punke, the author of the best-selling survivalist novel “The Revenant” and a former U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization in Geneva, is reportedly considering a Democratic run for Senate or governor in Montana. (Politico, 5/10/19)
Politico: “Democrats Plead With Bullock To Abandon White House Bid For Senate” (Politico, 5/14/19)
SENATE NEW HAMPSHIRE
Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH), who was rumored to be mulling a Senate challenge to Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), confirmed this week that he will be forgoing a Senate bid in favor of running for governor again. (Inside Sources, 5/14/19)
Following Go. Sununu’s announcement, WMUR reported that retired U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc is being encouraged to run for the seat. (WMUR, 5/17/19)
SENATE NORTH CAROLINA
Vice President Mike Pence will attend a fundraising dinner for Sen. Thom Tillis in Greensboro on May 22, an important sign of support from the administration for Tillis, who faces a primary challenge in 2020. (McClatchy, 5/13/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: For more intelligence on the North Carolina senate race, click here. Not the race your looking for? Check out our growing library of Race Briefs here.
SENATE TEXAS
According to The Texas Tribune, Chris Bell, a former Democratic congressman and gubernatorial nominee, is mulling a bid for U.S. Senate in 2020. (The Texas Tribune, 5/13/19)
- The Texas Tribune: “Joaquin Castro’s Out And MJ Hegar’s In But Other Democrats Are Also Eyeing John Cornyn’s Seat” (The Texas Tribune, 5/14/19)
SENATE WYOMING
Casper Star-Tribune: “With Mike Enzi Retiring, Wyoming’s First Open Senate Seat In Decades Could Attract Big Names” (Casper Star-Tribune, 5/12/19)
Following Sen. Mike Enzi’s (R-WY) announcement that he will not seek reelection in 2020, The Hill reported that former Wyoming Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) is considering a Senate bid to fill the seat. (The Hill, 5/10/19)
HOUSE
Former U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL)
HOUSE NATIONAL
The New York Times: “How Democrats Who Beat Republicans Last Year Plan To Keep Their Seats” (The New York Times, 5/14/19)
The Supreme Court on Monday gave the challengers of congressional maps in Ohio and Michigan until May 20 to respond to requests from state officials to stop court-ordered redrawing of district lines. Lower courts found the maps were partisan gerrymanders, an issue the high court is now considering in two other cases. (The Associated Press, 5/13/19)
HOUSE CALIFORNIA
McClatchy: “California On Track To Lose At Least One Congressional Seat After 2020 Census” (McClatchy, 5/13/19)
HOUSE FLORIDA
FL-26: This week, former Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo did not rule out running for his old Congressional seat again after the Ways and Means Committee pulled his invitation to testify at a hearing on climate change. (Politico, 5/15/19)
HOUSE GEORGIA
GA-01: Three-term incumbent Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA) has drawn a primary challenge from Daniel Merritt, an Army veteran and Savannah entrepreneur. (The Associated Press, 5/13/19)
HOUSE ILLINOIS
IL-03: Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL), chair of the DCCC, will host a fundraiser for Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-IL) next month. Lipinski faces a primary challenge from the left next year. (The Hill, 5/15/19)
HOUSE IOWA
IA-01: State Rep. Ashely Hinson (R-IA) filed to run for the U.S. House seat currently held by first-term Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-IA). Hinson is he only Republican in the race at this point, though there is speculation former Rep. Rod Blum (R-IA) will run again to try to reclaim the seat. (Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier, 5/13/19)
IA-02: Democratic state Senator Rita Hart announced she is running to replace outgoing Democratic U.S. Rep. Dave Loebsack in Congress. (Quad-City News, 5/14/19)
IA-03: Bill Schafer, an Army veteran, announced that he will run for the Republican nomination to challenge Rep. Cindy Axne in Iowa’s 3rd District. Schafer will go up against former Rep. David Young and perhaps others in a GOP primary next year. (The Des Moines Register, 5/13/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Catch up on all the Iowa elections here.
HOUSE KANSAS
The Kansas City Star: “Ex-Brownback, Sebelius Aides Among Women Weighing 2020 Congressional Runs In Kansas” (The Kansas City Star, 5/16/19)
HOUSE NEW JERSEY
NJ-03: Sources told the New Jersey Globe that Republican operatives in the state are seeking to recruit Assemblyman Ryan Peters to take on Rep. Andy Kim in the Third Congressional District next year. (New Jersey Globe, 5/13/19)
NJ-05: Frank Pallotta (R-NJ), a former investment banker, announced that he will challenge Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) next year. (New Jersey Globe, 5/13/19)
HOUSE NEW YORK
NY-27: State Sen. Christopher L. Jacobs said he will challenge Rep. Chris Collins in a 2020 GOP primary. Jacobs said he has formed a committee and hired a campaign manager. (The Buffalo News, 5/17/19)
HOUSE NORTH CAROLINA
NC-09: State Sen. Dan Bishop won the GOP primary for the Ninth District “redo” election with 47.7% of the vote, avoiding a runoff. He will face Democrat Dan McCready in a general election to be held on September 10. (AR/Intel, 5/15/19)
- NC-09: The Washington Post: “Could Democrats Actually Win This Do-Over Congressional Race In North Carolina?” (The Washington Post, 5/15/19)
NC-09: President Trump gave Bishop his “total endorsement” following his primary victory. (The Hill, 5/16/19)
HOUSE PENNSYLVANIA
PA-12: President Donald Trump is planning to attend a rally on Monday with state Rep. Fred Keller, the Republican running for the open congressional seat with a special election next Tuesday. (The Philadelphia Inquirer, 5/13/19)
- PA-12: Roll Call: “The Pennsylvania Special Election You Haven’t Heard About” (Roll Call, 5/14/19)
HOUSE TEXAS
TX-07: National Journal: “This District May Be 2020’s Foremost Bellwether” (National Journal, 5/12/19)
TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D-TX), a former Air Force intelligence officer and Iraq War veteran who lost a close race to Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX) last year, announced she is launching another challenge for the seat. (San Antonio Express-News, 5/14/19)
- Ortiz Jones announced she raised over $100,000 in her first day as a candidate. (Politico, 5/16/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Ortiz Jones isn’t the only Democrat running for the TX-23 seat. Find out who the other candidates are here.
HOUSE VIRGINIA
VA-02: Former GOP Rep. Scott Taylor said he is looking at either running again in VA-02 or running for the Senate. (Politico, 5/17/19)
VA-07: A new primary poll commissioned by the Club for Growth showed Virginia Delegate Nick Freitas (R) leading a field of five possible candidates with 23% support. (WPA Intelligence, 5/16/19)
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