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Race Rundown: Outside GOP Groups Raise Big Money

July 26, 2019

Welcome to the AR/Intel Race Rundown, our weekly recap of the most important news happening in campaigns across the country. Sign up to get the Race Rundown delivered to your inbox every Friday morning here.


NATIONAL

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019, in line with expectations but below the 3.1 percent growth-rate recorded in the first three months of the year. (The Hill, 7/26/19)

The RNC raised nearly $20.8 million in June and ended the month with almost $43.5 million on hand. The DNC, meanwhile, raised only $8.5 million and has $9.3 million on hand. (The Hill, 7/20/19)

Priorities USA, the main super PAC that will support the eventual Democratic nominee for president, announced it is starting to spend at least $1 million a month online attacking President Donald Trump’s record on the economy. (Politico, 7/23/19)

Mother Jones: “The Untold Story Of The Progressive Insurgency That Is Remaking Congress” (Mother Jones, 7/22/19)


PRESIDENTIAL

Unionized organizers for the presidential campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) approved a pay raise proposal from management this week. (The Washington Post, 7/23/19)

POLL: This week’s Morning Consult poll of Democratic primary voters found former Vice President Joe Biden leading the field for president with support from 33% of those polled. He is followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (18%), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (14%), Sen. Kamala Harris (13%), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (5%). (Morning Consult, 7/23/19)

  • POLL: An Economist/YouGov poll showed Biden leading among Democratic voters with 25% support followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (18%), Sen. Bernie Sanders (13%), Sen. Kamala Harris (9%), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (7%). (YouGov, 7/24/19)
  • POLL: An Fox News poll showed Biden leading with 33% support followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (15%), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (12%), Sen. Kamala Harris (10%), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (5%). (Fox News, 7/26/19)

SENATE NATIONAL

Senate Leadership Fund and One Nation, two outside groups aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, raised more than $20.5 million combined in the first six months this year. (Politico, 7/24/19)

Roll Call: “Democrats Not Sweating Contested Senate Primaries — Yet” (Roll Call, 7/22/19)


SENATE GEORGIA

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “A Trio Of Georgia Polls Point To 2020 Challenges For Dems” (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 7/22/19)


SENATE KANSAS

Kansas Senate President Susan Wagle (R-KS) launched her campaign for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS). (Hutchinson News, 7/25/19)

Usha Reddi, the mayor pro tem of Manhattan, KS, said that she plans to meet with Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, about a possible Senate run. (The Wichita Eagle, 7/23/19)


SENATE MAINE

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) told Bloomberg News she has not decided whether to run for reelection, suggesting “dark money groups” have hurt her chances. (Bloomberg, 7/21/19)

AR-Intel Insiders: We’re keeping close tabs on this critical race – make sure you’re up to speed on the latest developments here.


SENATE NEW HAMPSHIRE

Bill O’Brien (R-NH), a former member of the state House of Representatives who served as Speaker of the House, launched his campaign to unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. (The Associated Press, 7/23/19)

The Senate Conservatives Fund endorsed retired Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc in the GOP primary for New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate seat in 2020. (ABC-Manchester, 7/25/19)


SENATE TENNESSEE

Josh Gapp, a Knoxville-based physician, added his name to the growing list of Republicans running to replace retiring Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) next year. (Knoxville News Sentinel, 7/25/19)


SENATE TEXAS

The Texas Tribune: “Analysis: Local Democrats Hoping For Statewide Appeal In A Texas U.S. Senate Race” (The Texas Tribune, 7/19/19)

Royce West, a Democratic state senator in Texas, officially launched his bid for Senate this week. He joins a field of four other Democrats that includes MJ Hegar, a veteran who lost a 2018 House race; Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards; former Rep. Chris Bell; and Sema Hernandez, who lost the 2018 Senate primary to then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke. (Politico, 7/22/19)

  • Dallas Morning News: “As Democrats Prepare For Senate Primary Rumble, Incumbent John Cornyn Building Organization, Raising Cash” (Dallas Morning News, 7/19/19)

HOUSE NATIONAL

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The 2020 Congressional Elections: A Very Early Forecast” (Sabato’s Crystal Ball, 7/25/19)

The Congressional Leadership Fund and the American Action Network, outside groups allied with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), announced they had brought in a combined fundraising haul 0f $19.3 million in the first half of 2019. (The Washington Free Beacon, 7/24/19)

With two Republicans announcing they will not run for reelection this week, Inside Elections wonders, “How Much Do Recent Retirements Change House Battleground?” (Roll Call, 7/25/19)

Politico: “Dems Launch Secret-Money Ad Blitz To Back House Majority” (Politico, 7/25/19)

The Washington Post: “Centrist Democrats Worry That Medicare-For-All Imperils Control Of The House” (The Washington Post, 7/23/19)

The New York Times: “House Democrats Prepare For Civil War As Challengers Plot Primary Battles” (The New York Times, 7/19/19)


HOUSE COLORADO

CO-06: Steve House, a former Colorado Republican chairman and the current state GOP CEO, says he’s considering a run against Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO). (Colorado Politics, 7/19/19)


HOUSE FLORIDA

FL-16: State Rep. Margaret Good (D-FL) announced Monday that she will challenge Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL) in 2020. (Politico, 7/22/19)

FL-26: Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) confirmed that he is not interest in running again for the House seat he lost in 2018. (Florida Politics, 7/25/19)

  • FL-26: A recent poll from McLaughlin & Associates, a Republican polling firm, showed Curbelo leading Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) in a hypothetical rematch, 45% to 42%, with 13% of voters undecided. The firm also polled the current matchup between Mucarsel-Powell and Republican candidate Irina Vilariño, which showed Mucarsel-Powell leading 45% to 33%. (Florida Politics, 7/25/19)

HOUSE ILLINOIS

IL-06: Former Rep. Peter Roskam (R-IL) endorsed former state Rep. Jeanne Ives over former Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti in the GOP primary to challenge freshman Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL). (Crain’s Chicago Business, 7/24/19)


HOUSE MICHIGAN

MI-10: Two-term Republican Congressman Paul Mitchell announced that he will not seek reelection in 2020. (The Washington Post, 7/24/19)

AR/Intel Insiders:There are now 10 open seats that will be up for grabs in 2020. Keep up to speed on all the 116th Congress retirements with our Retirement Tracker.


HOUSE NEW JERSEY

NJ-07: A new NRCC poll shows an unnamed Republican challenger leading Rep. Tom Malinowski 44% to 42%. (New Jersey Globe, 7/25/19)


HOUSE NORTH CAROLINA

NC-09: An internal poll from Democrat Dan McCready’s campaign showed him tied at 46% with Republican Dan Bishop in North Carolina’s 9th District special election, with another 8% undecided. (The Hill, 7/22/19)

AR/Intel Insiders: Only 46 days until the NC-09 special election. Catch up on all the developments here.


HOUSE TEXAS

TX-21: Former Texas state Sen. Wendy Davis (D) formally announced she is running for the Democratic nomination to challenge Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX). (The Texas Tribune, 7/22/19)

  • TX-21: Davis’ campaign said she raised more than $250,000 in the first 24 hours following her announcement. (Austin American-Statesman, 7/23/19)

TX-22: Rep. Pete Olson, a six-term Republican congressman, announced that he will not seek reelection next year. (Roll Call, 7/25/19)

  • TX-22: Following his announcement, Dave Wasserman at The Cook Political Report moved the race from “lean Republican” to “toss up,” saying it is “one of the fastest-diversifying districts in the country.” (Twitter, 7/25/19)

HOUSE VIRGINIA

VA-10: Rob Jones, a Marine veteran and double amputee, announced he is running for the GOP nomination to challenge Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) in 2020. (The Washington Post, 7/22/19)


HOUSE WISCONSIN

WI-03: A new NRCC poll shows Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI) trailing a “named Republican candidate” among likely 2020 voter 45% to 43%. (Wisconsin Politics, 7/23/19)

Filed Under: Featured, Race Rundown

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