Welcome to the AR/Intel Race Rundown, our weekly recap of the most important news happening in campaigns across the country. Sign up to get the Race Rundown delivered to your inbox every Friday morning here.
NATIONAL
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and six committee chairmen announced articles of impeachment against President Trump on abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. (The Washington Post, 12/10/19)
PRESIDENTIAL
Joe Biden’s super PAC, Unite The Country, placed its first ad buy of the election cycle this week. The ad, which is part of a joint TV and digital ad buy worth $650,000 — almost $20,000 more than what the Biden campaign has spent in Iowa over the past month, will run in four Iowa media markets this week, with the most time purchased in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids markets. (Politico, 12/6/19)
POLL: This week’s national Morning Consult poll of Democratic primary voters found former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) leading the field for President with support from 30% of those polled. He is followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (22%), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (16%), Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) (9%), and Michael Bloomberg (D-NY) (6%). (Morning Consult, 12/10/19)
POLL: A new poll of nationwide Democratic voters from Monmouth shows Biden leading the field with support from 26% of those polled followed by Sanders (21%), Warren (17%), Buttigieg (8%), and Bloomberg (5%). (Monmouth, 12/10/19)
POLL: The latest national Quinnipiac poll shows Biden leading with support from 29% of primary voters followed by Sanders (17%), Warren (15%), Buttigieg (9%), and Bloomberg (5%). (Quinnipiac, 12/10/19)
POLL: A nation poll from The Economist/YouGov shows Biden with support from 26% of primary voters followed by Warren (21%), Sanders (16%), Buttigieg (11%), and Bloomberg (4%). (YouGov, 12/11/19)
SENATE NATIONAL
Planned Parenthood placed a seven-figure ad buy targeting Sens. Cory Gardner (R-CO), Martha McSally (R-AZ), and Thom Tillis (R-NC) over the Trump administration’s changes to a federally funded birth control program. (The Hill, 12/6/19)
SENATE ALABAMA
A survey conducted by OnMessage Inc. on behalf of former Attorney General Jeff Sessions’ 2020 U.S. Senate campaign shows Sessions leading the primary field with support from 44% of primary voters. He is followed by former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville at 21%, Congressman Bradley Byrne (AL-01) at 14%, former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore at 7% and State Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-Indian Springs) at 1% while 12% were undecided. (Yellow Hammer, 12/10/19)
A recent poll by the Alabama Farmers Federation shows Tuberville and Sessions in a statistical dead heat for U.S. Senate, with 35% of likely Republican voters favoring Sessions and 31% saying they would vote for Tuberville. (Alabama Political Reporter, 12/11/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Dig deeper with our Alabama Senate Race Brief, which compiles polls, candidate backgrounders, and recent news in one convenient place.
SENATE ARIZONA
A new poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights shows Democrat Mark Kelly leading Sen. Martha McSally by a 47 percent to 44 percent margin. (The Hill, 12/11/19)
SENATE COLORADO
David Goldfischer, a University of Denver professor with a background in international relations and homeland security, has joined the crowd of Colorado Democrats trying to unseat Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) next year. (The Denver Post, 12/10/19)
SENATE KANSAS
A previously unpublished poll of likely Kansas primary voters conducted for the NRSC in late October shows Kris Kobach would have 43% support in a field without Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, which puts him far ahead of his next closest rival, Rep. Roger Marshall (R-KS), who got 24%. Republican Senate President Susan Wagle registered at 8%, followed by oil magnate Wink Hartman at 5% and former Chiefs defensive end Dave Lindstrom at 3%. Sixteen percent of GOP voters said they were undecided. (The Wall Street Journal, 12/12/19)
SENATE MAINE
Maine Momentum, a liberal dark money group, is tripling its investment in ads targeting Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) over her support for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Instead of $180,000 over a three-week period, the group will now spend $540,000 on the ad. (Politico, 12/6/19)
SENATE NORTH CAROLINA
A new survey from Harper Polling on behalf of the conservative Civitas Institute, shows Sen. Thom Tillis leading his primary challenger, Sandy Smith, 63% to 11% among primary voters with 25% undecided. (Carolina Journal, 12/11/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Brush up on the state of this critical senate race here. Not the race you’re looking for? Browse our entire catalog or send us an email and let us know how we can help you.
HOUSE NATIONAL
The Washington Times: “GOP-Aligned Group To Spend $1.5 Million In New Ads Leveraging Impeachment Against House Dems” (The Washington Times, 12/10/19)
The Washington Examiner: “Trump-Aligned Super PAC Spending $2M To Hammer House Democrats In Vulnerable Districts” (The Washington Examiner, 12/8/19)
CBS News: “House Democratic Campaign Arm Launches Digital Battleground Ads To Protect Vulnerable Incumbents” (CBS News, 12/12/19)
Fox News: “AOC-Allied Climate Group Announces ‘Insurgent’ House Primary Challenges Against ‘Establishment Candidates’” (Fox News, 12/12/19)
HOUSE CALIFORNIA
CA-25: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) endorsed Assemblywoman Christy Smith over liberal talk show host Cenk Uygur to replace former Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA). (Roll Call, 12/11/19)
- CA-25: Bernie Sander, however, formally endorsed Young Turks founder Cenk Uygur to fill the open House seat. (The Hill, 12/12/19)
CA-48: House Republican Whip Steve Scalise announced his endorsement of Michelle Steel (R-CA) as she seeks to unseat Rep. Harley Rouda (D-CA) in 2020. (Orange County Breeze, 12/12/19)
CA-50: Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) said Friday he will resign his seat in Congress “shortly after the holidays,” bowing to pressure after pleading guilty last week to illegally using campaign finance funds for personal matters. (Politico, 12/6/19)
HOUSE FLORIDA
FL-03: Rep. Ted Yoho (R-FL) announced on Tuesday that he won’t seek reelection after four terms in Congress. (Politico, 12/10/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: There’s been a rash of House retirements in recent weeks – brush up on who is heading for the exits with our Retirement Tracker.
HOUSE MINNESOTA
MN-07: The Associated Press: “Democratic Congressman May Face Serious Threat From GOP Challenger” (The Associated Press, 12/9/19)
HOUSE NEW HAMPSHIRE
NH-01: Matthew Mayberry, the former vice chairman of the state Republican party, said he plans to file candidacy papers to challenge Rep. Chris Pappas (R-NH) next year. (The New Hampshire Union Leader, 12/9/19)
HOUSE NORTH CAROLINA
McClatchy: “In 2 Once-Red NC Districts, Republicans Might Not Even Bother To Run” (McClatchy, 12/12/19)
NC-02: Rep. George Holding (R-NC), whose congressional district was redrawn to be significantly more Democratic, announced he will not seek reelection next year. (McClatchy, 12/6/19)
HOUSE TEXAS
TX-13: Ronny L. Jackson, the former Navy officer and White House physician once considered to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs, filed Monday to run for the congressional seat set to be vacated by retiring Rep. Mac Thornberry (R-TX). (The Washington Post, 12/9/19)
TX-22: Nonprofit executive Pierce Bush, who is also the grandson of the late President George H.W. Bush, announced his candidacy for the seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Pete Olson (R-TX). (NPR, 12/8/19)
HOUSE VIRGINIA
VA-02: Former Rep. Scott Taylor (R-VA) will drop his challenge to Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) and will instead run for his old seat in Congress against freshman Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA). (The Hill, 12/9/19)