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Race Rundown: Liberal Dark Money Group Launches Ad Campaign In Swing Districts

August 23, 2019

Welcome to the AR/Intel Race Rundown, our weekly recap of the most important news happening in campaigns across the country. Sign up to get the Race Rundown delivered to your inbox every Friday morning here.


NATIONAL

A new national poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal found that nearly two-thirds of Americans say they support free trade with foreign countries, a 7-point increase from the last time it was asked in 2017. (NBC News, 8/18/19)

CBS News: “RNC Ramps Up Ground Game To Bolster Trump Campaign In Key States” (CBS News, 8/20/19)

Business Insider: “Experts Say There Is Still A Clear Route For Trump To Win Reelection In 2020 Even If A Recession Strikes” (Business Insider, 8/22/19)


PRESIDENTIAL

Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) began airing his first TV ad of his presidential campaign in Iowa this week. The sixty-second television ad highlights the former vice president’s work alongside former President Barack Obama and paints President Donald Trump as “an erratic, vicious, bullying president.” (CNN, 8/20/19)

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA) ended his presidential campaign this week. (NBC News, 8/21/19)

POLL: This week’s national Morning Consult poll of Democratic primary voters found former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) leading the field for President with support from 31% of those polled. He is followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (20%), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (14%), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) (9%), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) (5%). (Morning Consult, 8/19/19)

POLL: A national CNN poll shows Biden leading the nomination race with the support of 29% of Democratic primary voters. Next is Sanders at 15%, Warren at 14%, and Harris and Buttigieg tied at 5%. (CNN, 8/20/19)

POLL: This week’s national Economist/YouGov poll shows Biden leading the field (22%) followed by Sanders (19%), Warren (18%), Harris (8%), and Buttigieg (8%). (YouGov, 8/21/19)


SENATE NATIONAL

The DSCC raised $4.8 million in July and ended the month with $16.9 million in cash on hand, while the NRSC raised $4.3 million and ended with $11.7 million on hand. (Politico, 8/20/19)

Politico: “Democrats’ Health Care Split Squeezes Senate Contenders” (Politico, 8/21/19)


SENATE ALABAMA

A poll of the Republican primary released by Tommy Tuberville’s (R-AL) Senate campaign showed Tuberville leading the field with support from 33% of Republican voters. He was followed by Rep. Bradley Byrne (17%), Roy Moore (15%), Secretary of State John Merrill (13%), and state Rep. Arnold Mooney (1%). (AL.com, 8/21/19)

State Rep. John Rogers (D-AL), who had been claiming he was planning to challenge Sen. Doug Jones in a primary, told Yellowhammer News that he will not run. (Yellowhammer News, 8/21/19)


SENATE ARIZONA

A new poll from OH Predictive Insights showed Mark Kelly (D-AZ) leading Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) in the Arizona Senate race, 46% to 41%. (The Hill, 8/20/19)

Washington Examiner: “Arizona Senate Race Could Be GOP’s Toughest To Keep” (Washington Examiner, 8/21/19)

AR/Intel Insiders: Arizona will be a pivotal race in the battle for the Senate. Make sure you’re up to speed on all the latest candidate developments here.


SENATE COLORADO

Former CO Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) announced he will run for the U.S. Senate in 2020. (Denver Post, 8/22/19)

A new survey from Emerson Polling found Hickenlooper leading Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) in a hypothetical matchup 53% to 40% with 8% undecided. (Colorado Politics, 8/20/19)

Westword: “As Hickenlooper Weighs A Senate Run, Climate Activists Hope He Stays Out” (Westword, 8/21/19)

Vox: “Colorado Progressives Aren’t Clearing The Field For John Hickenlooper” (Vox, 8/22/19)


SENATE MAINE

The Cook Political Report moved the rating of the Maine Senate race from “lean Republican” to “toss up.” (Maine Public, 8/17/19)

Portland Press Herald: “Democratic Candidate Gideon Attacks Sen. Collins Over Tax Vote, ACA” (Portland Press Herald, 8/20/19)

Maine Momentum, a Democratic dark money group, announced it plans to reserve at least $722,000 of TV airtime across Maine to attack Sen. Susan Collins. (Lewiston Sun Journal, 8/14/19)

AR/Intel Insiders: We’re keeping close tabs on this critical race – make sure you’re up to speed on the latest developments here.


SENATE MASSACHUSETTS

According to a senior Democratic official, Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III (D-MA) is considering a primary challenge next year against Sen. Edward Markey (D-MA). (The New York Times, 8/17/19)


SENATE MICHIGAN

Politico: “Michigan Emerges As Crucial Battleground In Fight For The Senate” (Politico, 8/19/19)


SENATE MINNESOTA

Former Rep. Jason Lewis (R-MN) announced he will run for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN). (Minnesota Public Radio, 8/22/19)


SENATE NEW HAMPSHIRE

A new poll from the University of New Hampshire found that 43% of New Hampshire voters want someone to replace Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, 43% of voters want her reelected, and 15% were undecided. (Breitbart, 8/16/19)


HOUSE NATIONAL

Nancy Pelosi

The NRCC rolled out its first list of 43 candidates it says are “on the radar” as part of its “Young Guns” program for top recruits. (Politico, 8/16/19)

House Majority Forward, a new dark money project for House Democrats is launching a six-figure ad campaign in CA-21 (Rep. TJ Cox), CA-48 (Rep. Harley Rouda), CA-49 (Rep. Mike Levin) and NM-02 (Rep. Xochitl Torres Small). (The Washington Free Beacon, 8/20/19)


HOUSE ARIZONA

AZ-01: Former AZ state Senator Barbara McGuire (D-AZ) announced she will challenge Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ) in the 2020 Democratic primary. (AZ Mirror, 8/19/19)


HOUSE ILLINOIS

IL-14: Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL) became the second representative from a district Trump won in 2016 to support an impeachment inquiry. (The Hill, 8/20/19)

IL-17: Esther Joy King, a Republican attorney, announced she will challenge Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL) for the 17th Congressional District in 2020. (NBC-Peoria, 8/22/19)


HOUSE IOWA

IA-04: FiveThrityEight: “GOP Leaders Really Want Steve King Gone. Could He Lose In 2020?” (FiveThirtyEight, 8/20/19)

AR/Intel Insiders: For a more in depth look at this contest, check out our new IA-04 Race Brief.


HOUSE FLORIDA

FL-26: Omar Blanco (R-FL), the head of a firefighter union, filed to run for the Republican nomination to challenge freshman Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL). (Florida Politics, 8/19/19)


HOUSE MICHIGAN

MI-11: Whitney Williams, a Canton Republican and Taiwanese immigrant, announced her bid for Michigan’s 11th Congressional District Monday, becoming the first challenger in 2020 to freshman Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI). (Michigan Advance, 8/19/19)


HOUSE NEW JERSEY

NJ.com: “House Republicans Say These Jersey Candidates Could Give Incumbents A Run For Their Money” (NJ.com, 8/18/19)


HOUSE NEW YORK

NY-17: Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY) is facing her first primary challenge since 1988. Mondaire Jones (D-NY), a former DOJ official in the Obama Administration, announced he will challenge Lowey in 2020. (Roll Call, 8/19/19)


HOUSE NORTH CAROLINA

NC-09: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Republican Dan Bishop ahead of the special election set to take place next month. (Politico, 8/22/19)

NC-09: The Wall Street Journal: “North Carolina Do-Over House Election Will Be A Test Of Democratic Momentum” (The Wall Street Journal, 8/22/19)

NC-09: President Trump announced that he will hold a rally in North Carolina in support of Republican candidate Dan Bishop. (The Hill, 8/22/19)

NC-09: The DCCC released its first ad in the NC-09 special election hitting GOP state Sen. Dan Bishop for his health care record. (Politico, 8/16/19)

  • NC-09: Charlotte Observer: “TV Ads Are Flying In The 9th District Congressional Race, But Are They True?” (Charlotte Observer, 8/22/19)

HOUSE TEXAS

TX-23: Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones’ campaign said she raised more than $1 million in the first 98 days of her 2020 bid to represent Texas’ 23rd Congressional District. (The Hill, 8/20/19)

AR/Intel Insiders: From the presidential election to Senate and House races – Texas could be extremely competitive next year. Get up to speed on all the races here.


HOUSE UTAH

UT-02: Utah Policy: “National Democrats Think Rep. Chris Stewart Could Be Vulnerable In 2020” (Utah Policy, 8/20/19)

UT-04: Utah state Senate Majority Whip Dan Hemmert (R-UT) announced he will challenge Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT) in 2020. (Deseret News, 8/21/19)

Filed Under: Featured, Race Rundown

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