Welcome to the AR/Intel Race Rundown, our weekly recap of the most important news happening in campaigns across the country. Sign up to get the Race Rundown delivered to your inbox every Friday morning here.
NATIONAL
Acronym, a progressive nonprofit group, announced it plans to spend $75 million on digital advertising to counter President Trump’s early spending advantage in key 2020 battleground states. (The New York Times, 11/4/19)
The Cook Political Report: “It’s 2016 All Over Again” (The Cook Political Report, 11/7/19)
Gallup: “Approval Of Members Of Both Parties In Congress Under 40%” (Gallup, 11/6/19)
Bloomberg: “Pelosi Calls USMCA ‘Easiest Trade Deal,’ Could Get Vote In 2020” (Bloomberg, 11/1/19)
The Intercept: “A Group Of Progressive Women Just Launched A Working-Class Version Of Emily’s List” (The Intercept, 11/3/19)
PRESIDENTIAL
Joe Biden’s campaign announced it plans to spend $4 million on broadcast and digital ads in Iowa ahead of the Feb. 3 caucus there. (Bloomberg, 11/1/19)
Sen. Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign announced it was launching a $1 million TV ad campaign in New Hampshire this week. (The Hill, 11/6/19)
- Sanders’s campaign reportedly plans to spend more than $30 million on TV advertising alone in the first four presidential nominating states and California. (The New York Times, 11/7/19)
Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-MA), the only member of the group of progressive first-term congresswomen nicknamed “the squad” who had not yet backed a Democratic presidential candidate, has endorsed Senator Elizabeth Warren. (The New York Times, 11/6/19)
Axios: “The Growing Anti-Warren Consensus Shows The Limitations Of Her Plans” (Axios, 11/7/19)
Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former mayor of New York City, is opening the door to a 2020 Democratic presidential campaign. (The Associated Press, 11/7/19)
Former Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas announced he is dropping out of the 2020 presidential race. (The New York Times, 11/1/19)
POLL: This week’s national Morning Consult poll of Democratic primary voters found former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) leading the field for President with support from 32% of those polled. He is followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (20%), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (20%), Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) (7%), and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) (5%). (Morning Consult, 11/4/19)
POLL: The latest national Economist/YouGov poll shows Biden leading with support from 26% of primary voters followed by Warren (25%), Sanders (14%), Buttigieg (8%), and Harris (6%). (YouGov, 11/6/19)
POLL: Monmouth’s newest nationwide poll shows Biden with 23% support followed by Warren (23%), Sanders (20%), Buttigieg (9%), and Harris (5%). (Monmouth, 11/6/19)
SENATE ALABAMA
Former Alabama senator and attorney general Jeff Sessions announced that he will run to reclaim his old seat in 2020. (Politico, 11/7/19)
- The Washington Examiner: “Sessions Senate Bid Would Draw Trump White House Opposition” (The Washington Examiner, 11/6/19)
- com: “Could Jeff Sessions Win The Alabama Senate Race?” (AL.com, 11/7/19)
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) endorsed State Rep. Arnold Mooney (R-AL) in Alabama’s 2020 Republican Senate primary. (Yellow Hammer, 10/31/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Sessions’ decision to enter the Alabama Senate race adds another variable to an already crowded GOP primary – Learn more about the other candidates in our Alabama Senate Race Brief.
SENATE MAINE
Politico: “‘Slings And Arrows’: Impeachment Bears Down On Susan Collins” (Politico: 11/3/19)
Ross LaJeunesse (D-ME), a former Google executive and aide to former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, filed for the Democratic primary in 2020 for the seat held by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME). (Bangor Daily News, 11/6/19)
SENATE MASSACHUSETTS
The Hill: “Democrats Unifying Against Joe Kennedy Senate Bid” (The Hill: 11/5/19)
SENATE MICHIGAN
A new Emerson poll shows Democrat Mark Kelly leading Sen. Martha McSally among registered voters 46% to 45%. (The Hill, 10/29/19)
SENATE SOUTH CAROLINA
A new poll commissioned by the pro-Graham Security in Strength PAC and done by Benchmark Research shows Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) leading his likely Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, 53% to 30%. (The State, 11/5/19)
SENATE TEXAS
A new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll shows that Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-TX) Democratic rivals are largely unknown to voters. According to the poll, 57% of Democratic voters either don’t know who they’ll support (16%) or that they “haven’t thought enough about it to have an opinion” (41%). Among the candidates, MJ Hegar leads with support from 12% of those polled. The rest of the candidates are in single digits. (The Texas Tribune, 11/4/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: These primary poll results closely mirror a similar survey taken in September. Catch up on the latest developments of the Texas Senate race here.
HOUSE NATIONAL
The Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC), a prominent progressive advocacy group, unveiled its first congressional endorsements for the 2020 cycle on Tuesday. Among those receiving the group’s support are Kara Eastman in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, JD Scholten in Iowa’s 4th Congressional District, Dana Balter in New York’s 24th Congressional District. The PCCC also backed four Democrats challenging Democratic incumbents. (The Hill, 11/5/19)
The Washington Times: “Club For Growth Takes Aim At Vulnerable House Democrats In Impeachment Ads” (The Washington Times, 11/3/19)
HOUSE ILLINOIS
IL-15: After briefly considering reconsidering his plans to leave Congress at the end of his current term, Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) today announced he would stick to his original plan and retire. (Politico, 11/4/19)
HOUSE INDIANA
IN-01: Rep. Pete Visclosky (D-IN), the third most senior Democrat in the House, announced he will not be seeking reelection in 2020. (Politico, 11/6/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Due to retirements, there will now be 26 seats up for grabs in the U.S. House next year. Find out which seats are open with our Retirement Tracker.
HOUSE IOWA
IA-01: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) endorsed Republican Ashley Hinson in her bid to win the GOP nomination to challenge first-term Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-IA). (Cedar Rapids Gazette, 11/4/19)
HOUSE MICHIGAN
MI-11: Eric Esshaki (R-MI), a Birmingham lawyer, announced his campaign to unseat Democratic incumbent Haley Stevens. (Michigan Radio, 11/1/19)
HOUSE NORTH CAROLINA
McClatchy: “New Congressional Maps To Be Drawn For 2020 Elections In North Carolina” (McClatchy, 11/6/19)
The Cook Political Report: “New North Carolina Map Could Boost House Democrats” (The Cook Political Report, 11/1/19)
HOUSE SOUTH CAROLINA
SC-01: Two-term South Carolina state representative Nancy Mace (R-SC) was endorsed by the Club for Growth in her bid to unseat Rep. Joe Cunningham. (FITS News, 11/5/19)
HOUSE UTAH
UT-04: Former NFL player Burgess Owens, a Fox News contributor and author, announced he’s joining the crowded Republican field in the race for the 4th District seat held by Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT). (The Deseret News, 11/7/19)
HOUSE WISCONSIN
WI-03: Eau Claire software engineer Justin Bonner has announced he is launching a Democratic primary campaign against Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI). (La Crosse Tribune, 11/5/19)