Welcome to the AR/Intel Race Rundown, our weekly recap of the most important news happening in campaigns across the country. Sign up to get the Race Rundown delivered to your inbox every Friday morning here.
NATIONAL
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump was impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, largely along party lines, becoming only the third American chief executive to be formally charged under the Constitution’s ultimate remedy for high crimes and misdemeanors. (The Associated Press, 12/19/19)
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The New York Times: “What’s Next For Trump? A Senate Impeachment Trial, Probably” (The New York Times, 12/18/19)
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AR-Intel: “How Democrats In Trump Districts Voted On Impeachment” (AR-Intel, 12/19/20)
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Fox News: “Republican Party Sets Fundraising Record Amid Impeachment Battle” (Fox News, 12/19/19)
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Open Secrets: “Millions Of Political Ad Dollars Fuel Trump Impeachment Fight” (Open Secrets, 12/19/19)
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Politico: “After Impeachment Unity, Democratic Tug-Of-War Resumes” (Politico, 12/19/19)
Politico: “Democrats Stockpile Cash For State-By-State Redistricting Fight” (Politico, 12/19/19)
Politico: “House Passes USMCA, Delivering Win To Trump” (Politico, 12/19/19)
PRESIDENTIAL
The Washington Post: “Democrats Spar Over How To Combat Trump, A Roaring Economy And Impeachment” (The Washington Post, 12/20/19)
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The New York Times: “Who Won The Democratic Debate? Experts Weigh In.” (The New York Times, 12/20/19)
POLL: This week’s national Morning Consult poll of Democratic primary voters found former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) leading the field for President with support from 31% of those polled. He is followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (22%), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (15%), Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) (8%), and Michael Bloomberg (D-NY) (7%). (Morning Consult, 12/17/19)
POLL: A new poll of nationwide Democratic voters from NPR shows Biden leading the field with support from 24% of those polled followed by Sanders (22%), Warren (17%), Buttigieg (13%), and Yang (5%). (NPR, 12/10/19)
POLL: The latest national Emerson poll shows Biden leading with support from 32% of primary voters followed by Sanders (25%), Warren (12%), Buttigieg (8%), and Yang (6%). (Emerson Polling, 12/18/19)
POLL: A national poll from The Economist/YouGov shows Biden with support from 29% of primary voters followed by Sanders (19%), Warren (17%), Buttigieg (7%), and Bloomberg (4%). (YouGov, 12/18/19)
SENATE IOWA
A new poll from Public Policy Polling that was commissioned by End Citizens United shows Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) leading Theresa Greenfield (D-IA), her Democratic Party-backed challenger, by six points. (The Gazette, 12/18/19)
SENATE KANSAS
A new poll of GOP primary voters by the Trafalgar Group on behalf of the newly formed Free Forever PAC shows Kris Kobach in a dead heat with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in a potential GOP primary, with both candidates tied at 26%. A plurality of 29.8% is undecided, while the rest are split between other candidates. (The Kansas City Star, 12/19/19)
SENATE MAINE
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) officially launched her Senate reelection bid on Wednesday. (The Associated Press, 12/18/19)
A new poll of Maine voters commissioned by the 16 Counties Coalition and conducted by ALG Research shows Collins with a 51% approval rating and a 47% disapproval rating. In a March 2019 survey, Mainers gave Collins a 25-point positive job rating (62% approve/37% disapprove), marking a net 21-point erosion. (ALG Research, 12/14/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Dig deeper with our Maine Senate Race Brief, which compiles polls, candidate backgrounders, and recent news in one convenient place.
SENATE NEW HAMPSHIRE
Republican U.S. Senate candidate and retired Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc received key endorsements from Augusta Petrone, a longtime GOP activist and donor, and Jeremy Hitchcock, a well-known business leader who founded the cutting-edge internet infrastructure company Dyn. (WMUR, 12/19/19)
SENATE TEXAS
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) announced it is endorsing MJ Hegar in the crowded Democratic primary to challenge Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). The move is one of the biggest developments yet in the nominating contest, which has drawn a dozen candidates. (The Texas Tribune, 12/16/19)
- Dallas Observer: “National Democrats Throw Monkey Wrench Into Texas Democratic Senate Primary” (Dallas Observer, 12/17/19)
HOUSE NATIONAL
CNN: “House Democrats Are Betting Their Majority On Impeachment” (CNN, 12/16/19)
HOUSE CALIFORNIA
CA-25: Mercury News: “Why This LA-Area District Could Be Home To The Wildest Congressional Race Of 2020” (Mercury News, 12/16/19)
HOUSE GEORGIA
GA-06: Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene abandoned her bid for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District race, giving former Rep. Karen Handel (R-GA) a clearer path in her comeback attempt against Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA). (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 12/13/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Winning Georgia’s sixth District will be critical for Republicans to take back the House. Brush up on the state of race here. Not the race you’re looking for? Browse our entire catalog or send us an email and let us know how we can help you.
HOUSE MINNESOTA
MN-07: Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN), one of the Democratic party’s most conservative lawmakers who voted against impeachment, said he has no interest in becoming a Republican despite being asked by members of the GOP. (The Week, 12/17/19)
HOUSE NEW JERSEY
NJ-02: Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, who emerged in recent weeks as a prominent anti-impeachment Democrat, switched parties Thursday to join the GOP, one day after he opposed both articles of impeachment against President Trump — and following weeks of courting by the president, his allies and top administration officials. (The Washington Post, 12/19/19)
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NJ-02: Following the announcement that Rep. Jeff Van Drew was expected switch parties, Roll Call’s Nathan Gonzales changed the rating of the race from “tilt Democratic” to “tilt Republican.” (Roll Call, 12/16/19)
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NJ-02: Brigid Callahan Harrison, a political science professor at Montclair State University, became the first Democrat to announce that she’ll seek the Democratic nomination for New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District following Van Drew’s defection. (Politico, 12/16/19)
HOUSE NORTH CAROLINA
NC-06: Rep. Mark Walker (R-NC) announced he won’t seek public office next year, backing off after threatening to primary GOP Sen. Thom Tillis and two members of his own delegation. (Politico, 12/16/19)
NC-11: Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) announced on Thursday that he would leave Congress at the end of his term in January 2021. (The New York Times, 12/19/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: There’s been a rash of House retirements in recent weeks – brush up on who is heading for the exits with our Retirement Tracker.
HOUSE PENNSYLVANIA
PA-08: Earl Granville (R-NJ), a decorated war veteran and Veterans’ advocate, became the third Republican to join the race for Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional district that is currently represented by Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA). (PoliticsPA, 12/16/19)
HOUSE UTAH
UT-04: A new poll from Y2 Analytics shows 42% of Utahns in the 4th District said they were more likely to support Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT) for reelection if he voted for impeachment, compared to 37% who said it would make their support less likely. For 18%, the vote has no effect and 3% weren’t sure. (The Deseret News, 12/18/19)