Welcome to the AR/Intel Race Rundown, our weekly recap of the most important news happening in campaigns across the country. Sign up to get the Race Rundown delivered to your inbox every Friday morning here.
NATIONAL
The Washington Nationals, in a thrilling game 7 against the Houston Astros, won their first World Series on Wednesday, capping off what FiveThirtyEight called “one of the most improbable postseason runs in baseball history by one of the most entertaining teams in recent memory.” (FiveThirtyEight, 10/31/19)
The House of Representatives passed a resolution approving an impeachment inquiry against President Trump. (The Washington Post, 10/31/19)
CNBC: “Private Payrolls Increase By 125,000 In October, Topping Expectations” (CNBC, 10/30/19)
Twitter announced that it will no longer run political ads, a move that comes as fellow social media giant Facebook faces rising heat over its policy of allowing candidates to lie in their campaign messaging. (Politico, 10/30/19)
PRESIDENTIAL
The DNC announced it has raised the threshold for the sixth presidential primary debate in December. In order to qualify, candidates will need to bring in at least 200,000 unique donors and clear one of two polling thresholds: 4 percent in at least four DNC-approved polls nationally or in early-voting states, or 6 percent in two DNC-approved early-state polls. (Politico, 10/25/19)
Reuters: “Biden-Backing Super PAC Launched After Campaign Drops Opposition” (Reuters, 10/29/19)
CNBC: “George Soros Says Elizabeth Warren ‘Is The Most Qualified To Be President’” (CNBC, 10/25/19)
POLL: This week’s national Morning Consult poll of Democratic primary voters found former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) leading the field for President with support from 32% of those polled. He is followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (20%), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (20%), Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) (7%), and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) (6%). (Morning Consult, 10/29/19)
POLL: The latest national Economist/YouGov poll shows Biden leading with support from 27% of primary voters followed by Warren (23%), Sanders (14%), Buttigieg (7%), and Harris (4%). (YouGov, 10/23/19)
SENATE NATIONAL
The Hill: “Pro-Impeachment Group Pressures Vulnerable GOP Senators In New Ads” (The Hill, 10/30/19)
SENATE ALABAMA
A new Cygnal poll of likely GOP primary voters showed former Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville leading the Republican primary with support from 32% of those polled. He was followed by Rep. Bradley Byrne (18%), former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (10.6%), Secretary of State John Merrill (8.6%), State Rep. Arnold Mooney (2%) and Stanley Adair (1%). Of the respondents, 27.9% were undecided. (Yellow Hammer, 10/28/19)
Former senator and U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions is reportedly weighing a run for his old senate seat. (The Washington Times, 10/28/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Tuberville has been leading in most recent polls – see how the rest of the field shakes out in the Alabama Senate Race Brief.
SENATE ALASKA
The Washington Examiner: “Alaska Seat Suddenly At Risk As GOP Battles To Hold The Senate” (The Washington Examiner, 10/25/19)
SENATE ARIZONA
A new Emerson poll shows Democrat Mark Kelly leading Sen. Martha McSally among registered voters 46% to 45%. (The Hill, 10/29/19)
SENATE KANSAS
The DSCC and EMILY’s List endorsed state Sen. Barbara Bollier (D-KS) in the Kansas Senate race. (Politico, 10/31/19)
SENATE MAINE
Portland Press Herald: “Out-Of-State Donors Flood Maine’s Closely Watched U.S. Senate Race” (Portland Press Herald, 10/27/19)
Bangor Daily News: “Maine Ethics Watchdog Fines Sara Gideon’s Political Committee Over Contributions” (Bangor Daily News, 10/30/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Get the latest information on the Maine Senate race and others with our growing library of Race Briefs.
SENATE MICHIGAN
The Cook Political Report changed the rating of the Michigan senate race from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.” (The Cook Political Report, 10/25/19)
SENATE NEW MEXICO
New Mexico Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver ended her Senate campaign this week and endorsed Rep. Ben Ray Luján in the Democratic primary to replace retiring Sen. Tom Udall (D-NM). (Politico, 10/29/19)
SENATE NORTH CAROLINA
The DSCC endorsed Army veteran and former one-term state senator Cal Cunningham (D-NC) in the race to unseat Sen. Thom Tillis. (News & Observer, 10/31/19)
HOUSE CALIFORNIA
CA-25: Facing allegations of inappropriate sexual relationships with staffers in her office and on her congressional campaign, freshman Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA) announced she is resigning from Congress. (Politico, 10/27/19)
CA-25: Following Hill’s resignation, The Cook Political Report changed the rating of the race from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.” (The Cook Political Report, 10/28/19)
CA-25: State Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D-CA) announced she would run to replace Hill just one day after she announced her resignation. (The Hill, 10/28/19)
CA-25: Former Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos — who pled guilty in 2017 to making false statements to the FBI about Russian contacts — filed his statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday for California’s 25th district. (Axios, 10/29/19)
CA-25: Former Rep. Steve Knight (R-CA), who was defeated by Hill in the 2018 election, is reportedly considering a run for his old seat. (The New York Post, 10/28/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Need a full list of House and Senate retirements? We’ve got you covered.
HOUSE ILLINOIS
IL-15: Rep. Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL), who announced this summer he won’t run for reelection in 2020, said Monday night he has been asked to reconsider his decision. (The Hill, 10/28/19)
HOUSE MARYLAND
MD-07: Gov. Larry Hogan announced that the special election to fill the late Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings’ 7th Congressional District seat will be held on April 28, 2020. The primary will be held on February 4, 2020. (Axios, 10/28/19)
HOUSE MINNESOTA
MN-01: Rich Wright (D-MN), an attorney from Rochester, announced his candidacy for the DFL endorsement in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District. (Southern Minn, 10/28/19)
HOUSE NORTH CAROLINA
CNN: “North Carolina Judges Throw Out Congressional Map Ahead Of 2020 Elections” (CNN, 10/31/19)
- The Cook Political Report: “New North Carolina Map Could Boost House Democrats” (The Cook Political Report, 11/1/19)
HOUSE OREGON
OR-02: Rep. Greg Walden, the top Republican on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, announced he will retire at the end of this Congress. (Politico, 10/28/19)
HOUSE PENNSYLVANIA
PA-17: Fox News contributor Sean Parnell (R-PA) on Wednesday announced that he will challenge Rep. Conor Lamb (D-PA) in Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District. (The Hill, 10/30/19)
HOUSE TEXAS
TX-31: Round Rock City Council Member Tammy Young (D-TX) announced her bid for U.S. Rep. John Carter’s seat this week. (Austin American-Statesman, 10/30/19)