Welcome to the AR/Intel Race Rundown, our weekly recap of the most important news happening in campaigns across the country. Sign up to get the Race Rundown delivered to your inbox every Friday morning here.
PRESIDENTIAL
California Sen. Kamala Harris announced that she was suspending her presidential campaign on Tuesday. (The Washington Post, 12/3/19)
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Politico: “The Spectacular Collapse Of Kamala Harris” (Politico, 12/3/19)
Montana Governor Steve Bullock announced on Monday that he would end his presidential bid. During his announcement, Bullock reiterated that he has no interest in running for U.S. Senate. (CNN, 12/2/19)
Former Vice President Joe Biden unveiled a new tax proposal his campaign says would raise $3.2 trillion. His plan would raise the corporate tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent, place a minimum tax on companies’ pre-tax income, double a global minimum tax on offshore corporate income, and also tax capital gains and dividends at the same rate as ordinary income for those earning at least seven figures. (Politico, 12/4/19)
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The Democratic Race: Biden 2020 As Romney 2012” (Sabato’s Crystal Ball, 12/5/19)
FiveThirtyEight: “Michael Bloomberg Outspent The Entire Democratic Field In TV Ads Last Week” (FiveThirtyEight, 12/3/19)
POLL: This week’s national Morning Consult poll of Democratic primary voters found former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) leading the field for President with support from 29% of those polled. He is followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (20%), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (15%), Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) (9%), and Michael Bloomberg (D-NY) (5%). (Morning Consult, 12/3/19)
POLL: A new poll of nationwide Democratic voters from The Hill/HarrisX shows Biden leading the field with support from 31% of those polled followed by Sanders (15%), Warren (10%), Buttigieg (9%), and Bloomberg (6%). (The Hill, 12/2/19)
POLL: The latest national Economist/YouGov poll shows Biden leading with support from 27% of primary voters followed by Warren (18%), Sanders (13%), Buttigieg (12%), and Bloomberg (3%). (YouGov, 12/4/19)
SENATE ALABAMA
Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill (R-AL) dropped out of the GOP Senate race this week, ending his bid in the crowded primary to face Democratic Sen. Doug Jones next year. (Politico, 12/1/19)
SENATE ALASKA
The DSCC endorsed Democrat Al Gross in the U.S. Senate race against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK). (Press Release, 12/3/19)
SENATE COLORADO
The National Republican Senatorial Committee launched a digital ad campaign this week targeting former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) over his use of private jets for travel, which is at the heart of the ethics complaint currently awaiting action from the state Independent Ethics Commission. (Colorado Politics, 12/2/19)
SENATE GEORGIA
Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) appointed financial executive Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) to the U.S. Senate on Wednesday, selecting the co-owner of Atlanta’s WNBA franchise over Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA), a congressman that President Donald Trump repeatedly urged the Republican to pick. (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 12/4/19)
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The Atlanta Journal Constitution: “Sean Hannity Urges Followers To Deluge Brian Kemp Over U.S. Senate Choice” (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 12/3/19)
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Politico: “McConnell Backs Georgia Governor’s Pick For Senate Amid Trump Skepticism” (Politico, 12/3/19)
SENATE MAINE
Bangor Daily Record: “A Guide To The Millions Pouring Into Maine For The 2020 US Senate Race” (Bangor Daily Record, 12/1/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Get the latest information on the Maine Senate race and others with our growing library of Race Briefs.
SENATE MICHIGAN
A new poll conducted by the conservative Restoration PAC shows Republican challenger John James leading incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) 44% to 43%. (The Daily Caller, 12/2/19)
The Hill: “GOP Set For All-Out Battle Over Michigan Senate Seat” (The Hill, 12/3/19)
SENATE NORTH CAROLINA
Retired businessman Garland Tucker (R-NC) dropped his primary challenge to Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) this week. (Roll Call, 12/2/19)
Rep. Mark Walker (R-NC) may challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) for the party’s Senate nomination next year or might run against either of two GOP House colleagues in their primaries, a spokesman for Walker said Wednesday. (The Associated Press, 12/4/19)
McClatchy: “NC Senate Race On Track To Once Again Be One Of The Most Expensive In The Country” (McClatchy, 11/27/19)
HOUSE NATIONAL
The Associated Press: “Impeachment’s Influence Hazy As Issue In Congressional Races” (The Associated Press, 11/30/19)
Roll Call: “House Rating Changes: A Dozen Races Shift Toward Democrats” (Roll Call, 12/2/19)
Bloomberg: “Meet The Best-Funded Primary Challengers To House Incumbents” (Bloomberg, 12/2/19)
Americans for Prosperity announced it is mounting a six-figure ad campaign against 15 members of Congress that voted in favor of extending the Export-Import Bank last month. (The Washington Times, 12/5/19)
HOUSE ALABAMA
AL-01: An internal polling memo shows former State Senator Bill Hightower (R-AL) leading the field in Alabama’s First Congressional District Republican primary to replace Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-AL). Hightower led the field with support from 29% of primary voters polled followed by Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl (20%) and State Rep. Chris Pringle (14%). (Yellow Hammer, 12/4/19)
HOUSE CALIFORNIA
CA-45: Two more GOP candidates have filed to enter the race for CA-45 in 2020, making it six Republicans and one Democrat who want to take the House seat from Rep. Katie Porter. The two new GOP candidates are Rhonda Furin, a special education teacher, and Christopher Gonzales, an attorney and army veteran. (The Orange County Register, 11/27/19)
CA-50: On Tuesday, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA) pled guilty to one count of misusing campaign funds after denying for more than a year that he and his wife had tapped a quarter of a million dollars in campaign funds to pay for personal expenses. Hunter entered the plea in U.S. District Court in California to one of four counts and is expected to be sentenced in March 2020. (The Washington Post, 12/3/19)
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CA-50: The Cook Political Report: “Hunter Guilty Plea Improves Republican Prospects Of Holding CA-50” (The Cook Political Report, 12/3/19)
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CA-50: Politico: “Duncan Hunter Shows No Signs Of Quitting House, Despite Felony Guilty Plea” (Politico, 12/4/19)
HOUSE GEORGIA
GA-14: Rep. Tom Graves (R-GA), who has served in Congress for more than a decade, announced that he will not seek reelection next year. (Politico, 12/5/19)
HOUSE IOWA
IA-03: American Action Network announced that they are spending $150,000 on television and digital ad buys for an ad that targets Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) on the impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump. (Caffeinated Thoughts, 12/3/19)
IA-03: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) endorsed David Young for the Republican nomination to challenge Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) next year. (Caffeinated Thoughts, 12/5/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: We have race briefs for every federal race in Iowa – check them out.
HOUSE KANSAS
KS-02: The Topeka Capital-Journal: “U.S. Rep. Steve Watkins Tangled In Voter Fraud, Perjury Allegations For Listing UPS Store As Residence” (The Topeka Capital-Journal, 12/3/19)
HOUSE MAINE
ME-02: Penobscot County Treasurer John Hiatt became the fourth Republican to file for his party’s 2020 primary in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. (Bangor Daily Record, 12/2/19)
HOUSE MISSOURI
MO-02: Democratic state Sen. Jill Schupp announced that she is running to challenge Rep. Ann Wagner (R-MO) next year. (St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 12/4/19)
- MO-02: Schupp’s campaign announced that she raised over $225,000 in the 24 hours after she launched her bid Tuesday. (Roll Call, 12/5/19)
HOUSE NEW MEXICO
NM-02: Albuquerque Journal: “Money Pouring Into Congressional Race For Seat Held By Torres Small” (Albuquerque Journal, 11/29/19)
HOUSE NORTH CAROLINA
A three-judge panel ruled Monday that new congressional maps passed by state lawmakers last month can stand for the 2020 election. The court also opened filing for U.S. House candidates. (McClatchy, 12/2/19)
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Roll Call: “Democrats Could Pick Up At Least 2 Seats With New NC Districts” (Roll Call, 12/2/19)
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Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Handicapping North Carolina’s New Districts” (Sabato’s Crystal Ball, 12/5/19)
NC-02: McClatchy: “George Holding, Whose District Now Leans Democratic, Won’t Run Vs. GOP Incumbent” (McClatchy, 12/4/19)
HOUSE SOUTH CAROLINA
SC-01: “State Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), who is running for the Republican nomination to challenge Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-SC) next year, announced she was endorsed by Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY). (The State, 12/5/19)
HOUSE VIRGINIA
VA-07: Delegate Nick Freitas, a Republican from Culpeper who was re-elected Nov. 5 in a write-in campaign, announced he is running for the congressional seat held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA). (Richmond Times-Dispatch, 12/2/19)
HOUSE WASHINGTON
WA-10: Rep. Denny Heck (D-WA), who has represented Washington’s 10th congressional district since 2013, announced he will not seek reelection in 2020. (CNN, 12/4/19)
AR/Intel Insiders: Need a full list of House and Senate retirements? We’ve got you covered.