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Race Rundown: 2020 Field Begins To Separate

September 6, 2019

Welcome to the AR/Intel Race Rundown, our weekly recap of the most important news happening in campaigns across the country. Sign up to get the Race Rundown delivered to your inbox every Friday morning here.


PRESIDENTIAL

The Democratic National Committee scheduled the 4th Democratic debate nights for Oct. 15-16 in Ohio. (Axios, 8/31/19)

Politico: “It’s Now Biden, Warren, Sanders — And Everyone Else” (Politico, 9/2/19)

POLL: This week’s national Morning Consult poll of Democratic primary voters found former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) leading the field for President with support from 32% of those polled. He is followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (20%), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (16%), Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) (8%), and Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) (5%). (Morning Consult, 9/4/19)

POLL: A national Economist/YouGov poll shows Biden leading the nomination race with the support of 26% of Democratic primary voters. Next is Warren at 22%, Sanders at 14%, and Harris and Buttigieg tied at 5%. (YouGov, 8/20/19)


SENATE NATIONAL

The New York Times: “Both Parties See Control Of The Senate As Pivotal. Here Are The Key Races They’re Watching.” (The New York Times, 8/31/19)

  • NBC News: “The Senate Suddenly Looks Like It’s Up For Grabs In 2020” (NBC News, 9/1/19)

Los Angeles Times: “Democratic Campaign Arm Accused Of Trying To Hinder Progressive Candidates In Key Senate Primaries” (Los Angeles Times, 9/4/19)


SENATE COLORADO

U.S. Senate candidate Mike Johnston (D-CO) announced that he is suspending his campaign to challenge Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). (The Denver Post, 9/3/19)

A new PPP poll showed former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) leading the Democratic primary with support from 60% of Democratic voters followed by former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff with 9% support. None of the other candidates in the poll scored above 3% support, and 16% of respondents said they were undecided. (Colorado Politics, 9/4/19)

The Denver Post: “The Democratic Race To Be The Anti-Hickenlooper Within Colorado’s Race For Senate” (The Denver Post, 9/5/19)

AR/Intel Insiders: We’re keeping close tabs on this critical race – make sure you’re up to speed on the latest developments here.


SENATE GEORGIA

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: “With Two Senate Races, Georgia Becomes A Top Political Battleground” (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 8/31/19)

The Hill: “5 Republicans Who Could Replace Isakson In Georgia’s Senate Race” (The Hill, 8/31/19)

Former Atlanta Mayor and U.N. ambassador Andrew Young endorsed Teresa Tomlinson’s (D-GA) campaign to unseat Sen. David Perdue (R-GA). (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 9/3/19)


SENATE KANSAS

KCUR: “10 And Counting: Your Guide To The Candidates Competing For Kansas U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts’ Job” (KCUR, 9/1/19)

Rep. Roger Marshall (R-KS) is expected to make an announcement on running for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate on Saturday. (Abilene Reflector-Chronicle, 9/4/19)


SENATE KENTUCKY

Former state Rep. Wesley Morgan (R-KY) announced he will challenge Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in a primary. (ABC-Louisville, 9/3/19)


SENATE NEW HAMPSHIRE

Bryant “Corky” Messner, a trial lawyer and Army Ranger veteran, formally jumped into the race for the Republican nomination to challenge Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). (Concord Monitor, 9/4/19)

Former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski said Thursday that he is “very close” to making a decision on whether to launch a campaign to challenge Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-NH) in 2020. (The Hill, 9/5/19)


SENATE WEST VIRGINIA

Following rumors that he was considering a run for West Virginia’s Governor, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced that he will stay in the U.S. Senate. (The New York Times, 9/3/19)


HOUSE NATIONAL

Roll Call: “Rating Changes In Four House Races, But Flores’ Seat Isn’t One Of Them” (Roll Call, 9/4/19)

  • Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed three House ratings – the NC-09 special from Leans Republican to Toss-up; the NC-03 special election from Safe Republican to Likely Republican; and MN-07 from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. (Sabato’s Crystal Ball, 9/5/19)

Politico: “Republicans Fear Drubbing In Next Round Of Redistricting” (Politico, 9/5/19)


HOUSE ARIZONA

AZ-01: Republican Tiffany Shedd, who is running to challenge Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ) next year, picked up the endorsement of former U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ). (The Arizona Republic, 8/31/19)


HOUSE CALIFORNIA

CA-23: Democrat Kim Mangone, an Air Force veteran, announced she intends to challenge Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) for his 23rd Congressional seat. (NBC Bakersfield, 9/2/19)

CA-53: Rep. Susan Davis (D-CA), who has served as a member of Congress since 2001, announced that she will not seek another term. (The Associated Press, 9/4/19)

AR/Intel Insiders: This week saw three members of Congress announce their retirement – get a full overview of which members won’t be running again in 2020 with our Retirement Tracker.


HOUSE COLORADO

CO-06: Steve House, a former Colorado Republican Party chairman and CEO, announced he is running to challenge freshman Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO) next year. (The Denver Post, 9/3/19)


HOUSE ILLINOIS

IL-15: Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL) announced he will not run for a 13th term in the U.S. House of Representatives. (Roll Call, 8/30/19)


HOUSE IOWA

IA-03: Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (R-IA) endorsed David Young (R-IA) in the race to unseat Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA). (KMA News, 9/3/19)


HOUSE KANSAS

KS-02: Kansas Republican Jake LaTurner announced that he is cutting short his campaign for Senate to run a primary challenge against freshman Rep. Steve Watkins (R-KS) instead. (Politico, 9/4/19)

KS-o3: A 2020 Republican primary for the U.S. House seat held by Democrat Sharice Davids took shape with filing of federal election documents by Amanda Adkins, a former campaign manager for the GOP’s Sam Brownback. She joins Republican Sarah Hart Weir, the former president of the National Down Syndrome Society. (The Topeka Capital-Journal, 9/3/19)


HOUSE MINNESOTA

MN-02: Rick Olson, a former Republican state lawmaker from Michigan became the first candidate to officially announce a challenge against freshman Rep Angie Craig (D-MN). (Twin Cities-Pioneer Press, 9/3/19)

MN-07: Former state senator and lieutenant governor Michelle Fischbach (R-MN) announced she will challenge Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN) for the Congressional seat in Minnesota’s Seventh District. (Minneapolis Star Tribune, 9/2/19)


HOUSE NEW JERSEY

NJ-04: Stephanie Schmid, a human rights activist and former intern for GOP Rep. Christopher Smith announced she is seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge him next fall. (Roll Call, 9/4/19)


HOUSE NEW YORK

NY-27: Politico: “Republicans Rush To Challenge Indicted Incumbent Collins In Deep Red District” (Politico, 9/1/19)


HOUSE NORTH CAROLINA

NC-09: AR/Intel: “Special Election Preview: North Carolina’s 9th District” (AR/Intel, 9/5/19)

NC-09: A new poll from Inside Elections showed Democrat Dan McCready leading Republican Dan Bishop 46% to 42% in the special election for North Carolina’s 9th District. (Inside Elections, 8/30/19)

  • NC-09: A new RRH Elections poll showed Bishop leading McCready 46% to 45%. (RRH Elections, 9/3/19)

NC-09: Vice President Mike Pence is scheduled to visit Union County on Sept. 9 to stump for Republican Dan Bishop. (Charlotte Observer, 9/2/19)

AR/Intel Insiders: The special election is next Tuesday – for an in depth look at the latest polling, news developments, and more, visit our NC-09 Race Brief.


HOUSE TEXAS

TX-07: A poll paid for by the Congressional Leadership Fund showed GOP challenger Wesley Hunt leading freshman Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-TX) 45% to 43%. (Roll Call, 9/5/19)

TX-17: Rep. Bill Flores (R-TX) announced that he will not seek reelection in 2020. (Politico, 9/4/19)


HOUSE WISCONSIN

WI-05: Republican Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner announced Wednesday that he will not run for reelection next year. (Roll Call, 9/4/19)

Filed Under: Featured, Race Rundown

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