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Past Is Prologue: The Status Quo Election Of 2012

January 24, 2019

In 2010, Democrats experienced one of their most embarrassing electoral defeats, losing 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats. Following their “shellacking,” Democrats hoped their political fortunes would change in 2012. However, despite historical trends that show Democrats with a turnout advantage in presidential years, the party faced significant challenges. To take back the majority in the House, Democrats needed a net gain of 25 seats. And while they had control of the Senate, their one-seat majority was in jeopardy, as they would have to defend 23 of the 33 Senate seats up in 2012.

The campaign narratives of each party largely focused on “bread and butter” issues rather than on new ideas and proposals. Both presidential candidates tended to avoid highlighting their own positions in favor of attacking the other side. The campaign for Republican candidate Mitt Romney decided early on that the election would be won by voter dissatisfaction with the economy and associated national problems, such as unprecedented U.S. government debt. President Obama, meanwhile, zeroed in on Romney’s opposition to inclusion of abortion and contraception benefits under the Obama health care plan and on Bain Capital’s record on creating U.S. jobs and investing in China.

Heading into the election, national opinion appeared to be almost evenly divided. However, most political forecasters expected Obama to win reelection. President Obama won the election with 332 electoral votes compared to Romney’s 206. Despite his victory, it became clear that the enthusiasm that ushered him into office in 2008 was beginning to wear off. Obama received nearly four million fewer votes than he had in 2008, and his coattails did little to help Democrats in the legislature. In the House, they gained only 8 seats – a far cry from the 25 they needed. While they were able to increase their Senate majority by 2, most pundits would agree they were largely helped by gaffes committed by Republican candidates.

All in all, the 2012 election was one that kept the status quo. It did not usher in any sweeping reforms or new ideas, but rather kept the country on the same track – for better or worse.

A full breakdown of the 2012 election cycle is below.

BY THE NUMBERS

House

Party Division Change By Congress*

  • 112th Congress (2011-2012): 193 Dems / 242 GOP

  • 113th Congress (2013-2014): 201 Dems / 234 GOP

Net Gains**

  • Democrats had a net gain of 8 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives through the 2012 election cycle.

  • Republicans flipped 11 seats.

  • Democrats flipped 18 seats.

Special Elections***

  • There were 6 special elections in the House held between Jan. 1, 2011 and the November 2012 election.

  • Republicans flipped 1 Democrat seat through a special election.

  • Democrats flipped 1 Republican seat through a special election.

Retirements/Open Seats

  • There were 38 members who did not run again or who sought other offices.

  • 20 Democrats / 18 GOP

Incumbent Losses

  • 27 incumbents were defeated in the 2012 election.

  • Republicans flipped 10 seats by defeating the incumbent Democrat.

  • Democrats flipped 17 seats by defeating the incumbent Republican.

Senate

Party Division Change By Congress*

  • 112th Congress (2011-2012): 51 Dems / 47 GOP / 2 Ind (Caucused w/ Dems)

  • 113th Congress (2013-2014): 53 Dems / 45 GOP / 2 Ind (Caucused w/ Dems)

Net Gains**

  • 33 Senate seats were up for election in 2012 (10 GOP / 23 Dem)

  • Democrats had a net gain of 2 seats in the U.S. Senate through the 2012 election cycle.

  • Republicans flipped 1 seat.

  • Democrats flipped 3 seats.

Special Elections

  • There were no special elections in the Senate held between Jan. 1, 2011 and the end of 2012.

Retirements/Open Seats

  • There were 10 Senators who did not run again or who sought other offices (7 Dem / 3 GOP)

  • Republicans flipped 1 open seat.

Incumbent Losses

  • 1 Senate incumbent was defeated by the opposing party in the 2012 election.

  • Democrats flipped 1 seat by defeating the incumbent Republican.

Sources

Party Divisions, U.S. House, U.S. Senate

“Vital Statistics On Congress,” Brookings Institute;

Election 2012 – Senate Map, The New York Times, Accessed 1/23/19

“The U.S. Election of 2012,” Encyclopedia Britannica, Accessed 1/23/19

Notes

* Figures presented are the House/Senate party divisions as of the initial election results. Subsequent changes in membership due to deaths, resignations, contested or special elections, or changes in a Member’s party affiliation are not included.

**The “flipped seat” number reflects shifts in party control of seats from immediately before to immediately after the November elections. It does not include party gains resulting from the creation of new districts and does not account for situations in which two districts were reduced to one, thus forcing incumbents to run against each other. The Senate figure does not count Connecticut, which was vacated by Sen. Joe Lieberman, an independent who caucused with Democrats. The seat was won by Democrat Chris Murphy.

*** The special election figure does not include special elections held on the day of the general election.

Filed Under: Data Center

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