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Past is Prologue: How the 1994 Election Changed America

Although every election is different, we can glean important information about the present by looking at the past. With the 2018 election concluded and attention turning to 2020, AR Intel is beginning a weekly series recapping past elections, looking at what happened and conducting a “by the numbers” breakdown. In the interest of keeping the series relevant to 2020, we’re specifically going to take a look at the first midterms and reelections of our past 3 Presidents. Doing so should provide comparative context for how Republicans performed in 2018, and also give clues about what to expect in 2020.

We’ll begin our series in 1994, a “wave” midterm election that saw Republicans take back the House of Representatives in record numbers. In the weeks ahead, we follow up with each subsequent election in chronological order.

Following the election of Bill Clinton in 1992, Democrats controlled both Congress and the White House for the first time in 12 years. Going into the 1994 election, most people assumed Democrats would continue to hold the House of Representatives because they hadn’t lost it in 40 years. Furthermore, Republicans were the minority in the Senate, President George H.W. Bush had lost his reelection bid to Bill Clinton, and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) was on the edge of bankruptcy.

However, Minority Whip Newt Gingrich and Rep. Bill Paxon (R-NY), who was serving as the chairman of the NRCC, devised a plan and introduced the “Contract with America.” The contract, adopted by Republicans running across the country, was a list of legislation they promised to execute within their first 100 days in power. The contract proved to be a powerful messaging tool and helped lead the 1994 “Republican Revolution.” When the dust settled after the election, the GOP had picked up 54 seats in the House, giving them a 13 seat majority. In the Senate, Republicans gained 9 seats, giving them a 2 seat majority.

BY THE NUMBERS

House

Party Division Change By Congress

  • 103rd Congress (1993-1994): 258 Dems / 176 GOP / 1 Ind

  • 104th Congress (1995-1996): 204 Dems / 230 GOP / 1 Ind

Net Gains

  • The GOP picked up 54 seats (52 on the ’94 election day, 2 through special elections)

Flipped Seats*

  • GOP Flipped 56 Seats

  • Dems Flipped 4 Seats

48 Retirements**

  • 28 Democrats

  • 20 Republicans

Senate

Party Division Change

  • 103rd Congress (1993-1994): 57 Dems / 43 GOP

  • 104th Congress (1995-1996): 48 Dems / 52 GOP

Net Gains

  • The GOP picked up 9 seats (8 on the ’94 election day, 1 shortly after the election when Sen. Richard Shelby (AL) switched from the Democratic to the Republican Party)

Flipped Seats*

  • GOP Flipped 8 Seats

  • Dems Flipped 0 Seats

9 Retirements**

  • 6 Democrats

  • 3 Republicans

Sources: (Party Divisions; U.S. House, U.S. Senate / “Vital Statistics On Congress,” Brookings Institute)

*Flipped seats show the shift in party control of seats from immediately before to immediately after the election. It does not include seats won via special elections.

** Retirement numbers include members who did not run again for the office they held and members who sought other offices; it does not include members who died or resigned before the end of the particular Congress.

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