AR Intel’s Week in Review Video: 02-22-19
What a week it’s been! Catch up on everything you missed with this week’s AR Intel Week in Review video. From 2020 Democrats’ response to the Jussie Smollett case, to the special election announced in North Carolina, to Bernie Sanders’ monstrous first-day fundraising haul, there was a lot that happened.
Check it out here:
Sanders’ Entrance Makes a Splash, Beto Drives the Wall Debate, & Harris Stumbles: 2020 Dems
Another big dog jumped into the fight this week, as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) made iet official. Sanders’ entrance made a splash in more ways than one. His larger-than-life persona is sure to dominate the Democratic primary conversation, and his fundraising prowess is already on full display.
Meanwhile, former Vice President Joe Biden continues to lead every single national poll and many state-based surveys. And the other up-in-the-air candidate, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), put his fellow Democrats in the hot seat by his bold declaration about the border wall near El Paso.
For these stories and much more, check out AR Intel’s 2020 breakdown below:
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
Bernie’s back, and he’s making a splash. The Vermont independent announced Tuesday he’s officially running for president again, delighting his supporters and potentially throwing a wrench in the plans of other far-left liberal candidates hoping to take over the “progressive” mantle from the 77-year-old.
Within 24 hours of his announcement, Sanders’ campaign said they raised nearly $6 million – likely more than all the other announced candidates’ first 24 hours combined – from more than 225,000 donors. In an interview on the liberal program, “The Young Turks,” Sanders said his ideal running mate would be female and “ a couple of years younger” than him.
Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden
While the country waits for Biden to make a decision about running for president, the former vice president appears to be in no hurry. During a speech at the University of Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Biden said he’s more optimistic about the country than ever, argued how he would reverse President Trump’s foreign policy moves, and demanded new worker protections to strengthen the middle class, per the Washington Post. But what he did not do was hint at his thinking about 2020.
A new poll of Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire showed Biden once again leading the field with 28 percent, followed by neighboring-state favorite Sanders at 20 percent, Sens. Kamala Harris (D-CA) at 14 and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at 9. Fourteen percent said they were undecided. Nationally, the results are similar, according to a Morning Consult poll.
Fmr. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX)
The other will-he-or-won’t-he candidate that Democrats are eagerly watching, O’Rourke gained attention (and some scrutiny) when he told MSNBC’s Chris Hayes last week that he believed the border wall separating El Paso and Mexico should come down. Specifically, he added that if the question were put to the residents of El Paso, they would agree with him.
O’Rourke’s bold proclamation wound up putting other 2020 Democrats in the hot seat this week as many of them were asked if they agreed with O’Rourke’s assessment. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) was asked the question on camera, and she argued that if removing parts of the wall “makes sense, I could support it.” The question was also put to Harris, who basically dodged answering.
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
The president is eager to make socialism a contentious 2020 issue, but Harris was quick to bat away a voter’s question about the topic earlier this week. “The people of New Hampshire will tell me what’s required to compete in New Hampshire, but I will tell you I am not a democratic socialist,” she said in Concord. The remark was a not-so-subtle dig at Sanders and liberal rising star, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), both of whom self-identify as socialists. But when pressed on the issue by NBC News’ Kasie Hunt, Harris struggled to explain why a policy like Medicare For All is not socialism.
Harris also stumbled when asked about the controversial Jussie Smollett incident, in which the “Empire” star may have faked a hate-crime attack. Harris and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) called the incident a modern-day lynching, but after it was revealed Smollett’s case may have been a hoax, Harris acted as if she could not remember her tweet on the topic:
.@JussieSmollett is one of the kindest, most gentle human beings I know. I’m praying for his quick recovery.
This was an attempted modern day lynching. No one should have to fear for their life because of their sexuality or color of their skin. We must confront this hate.
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) January 29, 2019
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
During a CNN town hall on Monday evening, Klobuchar raised some eyebrows when she publicly broke with many far-left liberals in her party on key issues, namely Medicare for All and free college tuition for everyone. The two projects are pet causes of Sanders, but Klobuchar argued for a more gradual approach. On health care, she said she supported a “public option” as a better immediate alternative to the current health care situation.
Klobuchar’s position on free college tuition was a call back to 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s, before she capitulated to win over Sanders voters:
“I am not for free four-year college for all, no,” Klobuchar said. “If I was a magic genie and could give that to everyone and we could afford it, I would.” Instead, she pitched an expansion of Pell grants, free two-year community college, and streamlined refinancing programs.
She called the Green New Deal “an aspiration,” but in practice, she said accomplishing its goals in 10 years, as the resolution lays out, “would be very difficult to do.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Warren’s big announcement this week was her free child care program, which her campaign said would cost $700 billion to implement. That figure relies heavily on some economic assumptions that could very well go awry, potentially putting the cost at or near the trillion-dollar mark:
But, the sources said, the campaign has an internal analysis that shows the initiative will likely require approximately $700 billion in new federal spending over 10 years. That is a net figure, taking into account higher economic benefits of early childhood investments, such as making it easier for new parents to return to work.
Warren’s team claims that they will use the money from her wealth tax, a plan that taxes the wealthy simply for being wealthy, to help offset costs for the free child care plan. The larger question there, is if her wealth tax (which would need to pass Congress first) is even constitutional.
Bits & Pieces
Two Coloradans, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), are headed to Iowa this week to test the waters. Hickenlooper will be in Sioux City, Carroll, and Ames this weekend, while Bennet plans to visit Dubuque on Thursday.
Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s philanthropy has given away $6.4 billion to projects taking on the gun lobby, obesity, and the tobacco industry. His team is now beginning the process of “asking beneficiaries of his largesse if they’d be on board for his presidential bid.” Don’t call it a shake-down!
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) got the kind of press he might be hoping to avoid as he mulls a 2020 run: a new Politico story noted that he could be viewed on Wall Street as more reasonable alternative to hard-liners like Warren or Sanders. That might not play well among the party’s far-leftwing base.
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) appeared on ABC’s “The View” on Wednesday and defended her positions on Syria and Venezuela, arguing that the U.S. should not be involved in the unrest in either nation.
Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX) has struggled to make headlines since announcing his presidential exploratory committee, but he’s visiting towns in Northwest Iowa Friday and Saturday and has pledged to visit all 50 states during his presidential campaign.
The Political Edge: The 2018 House Candidates We May See In 2020
In this week’s edition of The Political Edge, we take a look at the failed 2018 House candidates who are now weighing Senate bids. Additionally, we breakdown an analysis from The New York Times highlighting the unprecedented number of Democrats who have announced their candidacy for President nearly 100 weeks before the election.
Failed House Candidates Running For Senate In 2020
On Tuesday, Roll Call’s Simone Pathé posted a new article highlighting several 2018 House Democratic candidates who are now considering a run for U.S. Senate. Below is a rundown of the candidates who are contemplating a Senate bid, according to Pathé.
J.D. Scholten – Scholten ran an unsuccessful campaign against Rep. Steve King in IA-04 last year, losing by 3.3 points. He is considering a challenge to Iowa’s Sen. Joni Ernst. Scholten ended 2018 with $75,000 on hand.
Amy McGrath – In 2018, McGrath lost the KY-06 Congressional race to Rep. Andy Barr by 3.2 points. Reports indicate that now Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer is trying to recruit her to run against Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. McGrath ended 2018 with $268,000 on hand.
Jon Ossoff – Ossoff lost the 2017 special election in GA-07 to Karen Handel by 3.8 points. He recently said he would back Stacey Abrams for Senate, but isn’t “ruling anything out if she decides against” challenging Republican incumbent David Perdue. Ossoff ended 2018 with $392,000 on hand.
MJ Hegar – Last year, Hegar lost a close race to Rep. John Carter in TX-31 by 2.9 points. She is said to be considering a bid against Sen. John Cornyn in Texas next year. Hegar ended 2018 with $47,000 on hand.
Joseph Kopser – Kopser lost the race to replace retiring Rep. Lamar Smith (TX-21) by 2.6 points last year. Like Hegar, he is said to be considering a bid against Cornyn in Texas next year. Kopser ended 2018 with $9,000 on hand.
The Presidential Primary Is Crowded Early
Two months into 2019 and there are currently 11 Democrats running for President. With more candidates expected to announce over the coming weeks months, The New York Times conducted an analysis comparing the number of Democrats currently running to years past. If it feels like the field has grown quickly and early, it’s because it has.
According to the analysis, “the Democratic presidential field for 2020 is more crowded than typical for this early in an election cycle.” At this point in 2008 there were eight candidates running, the previous high for candidates running this early.
The Democratic field also appears to be getting crowded much sooner than the 2016 Republican field, which hit a modern political record with 17 major candidates at its peak.
The Week Ahead for Feb. 18, 2019
Welcome back! It’s going to feel like winter in Washington this week, but Democrats are feeling the Bern as Sen. Sanders enters his name into the 2020 Presidential race. On a short week thanks to the President’s Day holiday, both the House and Senate are on recess. Vulnerable House Democrats are keeping themselves busy with more than 40 town halls scheduled this week across the country.
Tuesday, February 19
President Trump has meetings with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen. He also has lunch with Vice President Mike Pence.
Rep. Max Rose (D-NY) will attend Veterans Breakfast Listening Session at SSG Michael Ollis VFW Post #9587 in Staten Island, NY
Stacey Abrams (D-GA) will attend an Elections Subcommittee Field Hearing at The Carter Center in Atlanta, GA
Reps. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) and Sylvia Garcia (D-TX) will hold a press conference at The Homestead Temporary Shelter for Unaccompanied Migrant Children in Homestead, FL
Gov. Steve Bullock will attend a press event at The Montana State Capitol in Helena, MT
Mucarsel-Powell and Garcia will hold a roundtable in Miami, FL
State Sen. Jeff Jackson (D-NC) will attend NC Senate Judiciary Committee in Raleigh, NC
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) will appear on The Late Late Show and Young Turks
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) will host a “politics and eggs” event at the Saint Anselm College’s New Hampshire Institute of Politics in Manchester, NH followed by a fundraiser in Denver, CO
Fmr. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) will attend the El Pasoan of the Year event at The Centennial Banquet & Conference Center in Fort Bliss, TX
Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-NY) will attend an open house in Utica, NY
Rep. Conor Lamb (D-PA) will attend a town hall at Baden Legion Post 641 in Baden, PA
Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) will attend a reception at The Post Local Bistro in Plymouth, MI
Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) will attend host a webinar at the New Jersey League of Conservation Voters in Trenton, NJ
Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) will attend a town hall at Goochland Recreation in Goochland, VA
Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL) will attend a town hall at Sycamore High School in Sycamore, IL
Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT) will attend a town hall at The Nephi City Corporation in Nephi, UT and a second town hall at the City Hall in Lehi, UT
Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA) will attend Town Hall at Milford American Legion Post 139 in Milford, PA
Rep. Harley Rouda (D-CA) will attend a town hall at Estancia High School in Costa Mesa, CA
Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO) will attend a forum at The Village Exchange Center in Aurora, CO
Rep. TJ Cox (D-CA) is invited to attend Victory Party at Athena’s Greek Cafe & Grill in Bakersfield, CA
Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) will host a town hall at the Norman Murray Center in Mission Viejo, CA
Wednesday, February 20
Trump will have lunch with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. He will also participate in an expanded bilateral meeting with Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz.
Rep. Kendra Horn (D-OK) is hosting Coffee with Kendra in Oklahoma City, OK
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) will attend a district meeting with Moms Demand Action in Minneapolis, MN
Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) will host a town hall at Lakes Region Community College in Laconia, NH
Delgado will attend town hall at Canajoharie Central School District in Canajoharie, NY
Stevens will attend a town hall at Milford High School in Highland, MI
Thursday, February 21
Trump will receive an intelligence briefing, and he and the first lady will attend a reception for National African American History Month.
Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-CA) will attend a conference at The Westin Mission Hills Golf Resort and Spa in Rancho Mirage, CA
Brindisi will hold a town hall at the MVCC Rome campus Dining and Community Hall in Rome, NY
Harris will speak at the I Am Power Rising Conference at a location TBA in New Orleans, LA
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) will attend a fundraiser in Beverly Hills, CA
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) will attend a campaign event at UAW Local 450 in Des Moines, IA
Fmr. Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz will attend a book tour stop at the Moss Theater in Santa Monica, CA
Friday, February 22
Ruiz will attend a conference at The Westin Mission Hills Golf Resort and Spa in Rancho Mirage, CA
Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA) will hold an open house at One Columbus Center in Virginia Beach, VA
Bullock will attend the National Governors Association’s 111th annual Winter Meeting at the Marriott Marquis in Washington, DC
Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) will attend A+ Colorado: How We Evolve at Ironworks in Denver, CO
Harris will speak at the I Am Power Rising Conference at a location TBA in New Orleans, LA
Warren will speak at the 60th Annual McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner at the DoubleTree in Manchester, NH
Gov. Jared Polis (D-CO) will attend POLITICO’s Ninth Annual State Solutions Conference at Microsoft Innovation & Policy Center in Washington, D.C.
Saturday, February 23
Ruiz will attend a conference at The Westin Mission Hills Golf Resort and Spa in Rancho Mirage, CA
Harris will attend a discussion at the Iowa State Capitol in Des Moines, IA; will attend an Iowa Democratic Party Black Caucus event at USW local 310 Union Hall in Des Moines, IA; will attend a town hall at a location TBA in Ankeny, IA
Hickenlooper and Harris will attend a fundraiser at the Story County Democrats Soup Supper at a location TBA in Story County, IA
Booker will attend a reception at the home of Laura and Gary Lauder in Atherton, CA
Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) will attend Town Hall at River Bluff Education Center Cafeteria in Red Wing, MN
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) will attend an open house in Lansing, MI
Horn will attend a town hall at the Oklahoma City Community College College Union Building in Oklahoma City, OK
Spanberger will attend a town hall in Spotsylvania Courthouse, VA
Brindisi will attend an open house in Binghamton, NY
Bullock will attend the National Governors Association’s 111th annual Winter Meeting at Marriott Marquis in Washington, DC
Sunday, February 24
Malinowski will attend a brunch event in Chester, NJ
Abrams will attend a conversation with Chris Hayes at the The Gramercy Theatre in New York, NY
Malinowski and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) will attend a Victory Gala in Morris Plains, NJ
Harris will attend a meet and greet and worship at the Mount Carmel Missionary Baptist Church in Waterloo, IA; will attend a town hall at the Quad Cities Waterfront Convention Center in Bettendorf, IA; and will attend a community conversation at a location TBA in Cedar Rapids, IA
The Political Edge: The GOP House Advantage
In this week’s Political Edge, we look at the GOP House battlefield and where Republicans intend to put Democrats on the defensive. We also delve into a New York Times analysis of the small-dollar donor pools of 2020 Democrats and look at a turnout rate comparison of younger and older voters from the 2018 election.
The Republican House Offensive Battle Map
Last week, the DCCC announced they had named 44 incumbents to their “Frontline” program. Members of the program will receive extra resources from the DCCC as they look to defend their majority. Although the list is mostly comprised of freshmen members, it also includes Trump-district Reps. Tom O’Halleran (AZ-01) and Matt Cartwright (PA-08), as well as incumbent Josh Gottheimer (NJ-05). On the same day, the NRCC released a list of 55 Democrat-controlled seats it intends to target. Although there is some crossover, there are a few bits of information to note regarding the Republican House offensive front.
There is only one seat the DCCC has promised to defend that the NRCC is not currently targeting: Rep. Jahana Hayes in Connecticut’s 5th District.
There are 12 seats the NRCC intends to target that the DCCC has not yet added to its Frontline program: AZ-02, FL-07, FL-13, FL-27, IA-02, IL-17, MN-03, MN-07, NY-18, OR-04, VA-10, & WI-03.
Small-Dollar Democratic Donors
For Democrats running for President in 2020, small-dollar fundraising will be key. In the early months of the primary, having a strong foundation of small-dollar contributors not only demonstrates strong grassroots support, but is also an indication of potential voter enthusiasm. In 2016, for example, candidate Donald Trump shattered the record for presidential small-dollar fundraising, and his campaign and affiliated committees continue to raise tens of millions of dollars in increments of $200 or less. The New York Times recently conducted an analysis of six years of FEC filings from ActBlue estimating the size of the online donor armies for current and potential Democratic Presidential candidates. The top 5 candidates are listed below:
Bernie Sanders: According to the analysis, “Sanders would begin a 2020 presidential bid with 2.1 million online donors. The particular power of Mr. Sanders’s list was on display in late December when he emailed supporters with the provocative subject line, ‘If I run.’ That single email netted $299,000 from 11,000 donations, according to a senior Sanders official. That is almost the exact amount that Ms. Warren raised on the day she announced she was entering the race, data shows.” The analysis also notes that 87 percent of Sanders’ donors have not contributed to any other potential 2020 candidate.
2) Beto O’Rourke: Coming in second, O’Rourke “has twice as many online donors as anyone eyeing the race besides Mr. Sanders.” Like Sanders, many of O’Rourke’s donors have not contributed to any other potential 2020 candidate (72 percent).
3) Elizabeth Warren: With the third-highest number of small-dollar donors, Warren has notable strength in New Hampshire, where she edges out O’Rourke. Less than half of Warren’s donors have given only to her, among the potential 2020 field.
4) Kirsten Gillibrand: The analysis conducted by The New York Times notes that, among the field, Gillibrand has done a particularly good job of building up broad national support among small donors. Gillibrand “landed on the leader board despite having not faced a competitive election in recent years” and “actually had slightly more donors who were exclusive to her than Ms. Warren — even though she counted 70,000 fewer donors overall.”
5) Kamala Harris: Rounding out the top 5 was Harris, who raised an impressive $1.5 million online in her first 24 hours as a presidential candidate, a number that rivaled Sanders’ announcement in 2015.
Are Younger Voters Turning Out To Vote More Than Older Voters?
Last week, we highlighted a new Pew Research study looking at the 2020 electorate that showed the growing voting block of Gen X, Millennials, and Gen-Z. These three groups are poised to represent 62% of the voting age population in 2020. Following a 2018 midterm that saw record turnout, especially among young people, The Washington Post’s Martin Wattenburg wondered if the increase in turnout reduced the gap between the turnout rates of young and old Americans. His findings: No.
“Although turnout in 2018 rose substantially, it did so fairly equally in all age categories — leaving the age turnout gap unchanged. The average turnout difference between the youngest and oldest age groups in these three states was 41.3 percent in 2018. That’s not much different from the 42.6 percent gap in 2006.”
Klobuchar & Warren Make It Official, Dems Down on Biden: 2020 Democrats
There’s never a dull moment on the 2020 campaign trail for Democrats. This weekend saw two Democrat senators get in the race: Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren. Meanwhile, Cory Booker’s playbook appears to rely heavily on a big win in South Carolina, Kamala Harris is battling some demons from her prosecutorial past, and Kirsten Gillibrand goes all in on eliminating private health insurance.
For those stories and more, check out AR Intel’s weekly 2020 Movers & Shakers below:
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
One of two Senate Democrats jumping in last weekend, Klobuchar made it official in a snowstorm in downtown Minneapolis on Sunday. Joining her on stage were fellow Minnesota Democrats Gov. Tim Walz, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, and Sen. Tina Smith.
The Minnesota senator faced accusations last week that her not-so-Midwest-nice style made her an extremely difficult boss to work for, according to the Huffington Post. She responded to some of those accusations, which included public humiliation and what could only be described as maid-like duties, by saying, “I have high expectations for myself, I have high expectations for the people that work for me, but I have high expectations for this country.”
Klobuchar also threw in a jab at Hillary Clinton during her announcement speech when she described how she intends to campaign. “We’re going to be in Iowa and Wisconsin. We’re starting in Wisconsin because, as you remember, there wasn’t a lot of campaigning in Wisconsin in 2016,” she said. “With me, that changes. … I’m going to be there a lot.”
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
The other Senate Democrat making it official this weekend: Elizabeth Warren, who kicked things off in Lawrence, Mass. on Saturday. Warren launched her exploratory committee on Dec. 31 last year and immediately began staffing up in key early primary states like New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina. She was joined Saturday by fellow Massachusetts Democrats Sen. Ed Markey, Reps. Joe Kennedy III and Lori Trahan.
While Warren’s kick-off event made news, it was her remarks in Iowa on Sunday that raised eyebrows. “By the time we get to 2020, Donald Trump may not even be President,” she said. “In fact, he may not even be a free person.”
Trump responded to Warren’s announcement by asking if she planned to “run as our first Native American presidential candidate.” Last week, the Washington Post reported that Warren wrote “American Indian” on her Texas Bar registration card in the 1980s. She privately apologized to the Cherokee Nation recently for falsely claiming tribal citizenship.
Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO)
Hickenlooper had previously stated that he planned to make a formal decision about whether to run for president by March, but a new report from the Denver Post could throw a wrench into that plan. A state ethics watchdog committee voted unanimously to not dismiss a complaint filed against the former governor for allegedly accepting “free jet rides in violation of state rules.” According to the Post, the ethics complaint likely won’t be resolved by March, meaning Hickenlooper could be launching his presidential campaign under an ethics cloud.
Former Vice President Joe Biden
No one is exactly sure what timetable Biden is using, or whether he’s using one at all, when it comes to deciding to run in 2020. But a new report from McClatchy indicates that a huge swatch of the Democrat consultant class thinks it’s a bad idea for Biden to run. They spoke to 31 Democratic consultants and summarized their findings like so:
Strikingly, these conversations yielded a similar view: The Democratic political community is more broadly and deeply pessimistic about Biden’s potential candidacy than is commonly known. While these strategists said they respect Biden, they cited significant disadvantages for his campaign — from the increasingly liberal and non-white Democratic electorate to policy baggage from his years in the Senate and a field of rivals that includes new, fresh-faced candidates.
“There’s a lot of reason to think he would wind up a significantly weaker candidate than Hillary,” one source said.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
During a conversation with Obama bro Jon Lovett, Gillibrand called eliminating private insurance an “urgent goal” of hers. This follows Sen. Kamala Harris’s (D-CA) claim that she also supports eliminating private health insurance:
Meanwhile, potential Democrat presidential candidate and Senate colleague, Michael Bennet (D-CO), called eliminating private health insurance a “bad opening offer” on the part of the Democrats running for president.
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Ghosts from Harris’s prosecutorial past continue to haunt her presidential campaign. After labeling herself as a “progressive prosecutor” in her new book, a San Francisco law professor wrote a New York Times op-ed disputing that claim. On Monday, CNN reported on even more evidence that demonstrates Harris’s “progressive” label is dubious at best. She supported “a city policy that required law enforcement to turn over undocumented juvenile immigrants to federal immigration authorities if they were arrested and suspected of committing a felony, regardless of whether they were actually convicted of a crime.”
Here’s what that meant in practical terms:
Multiple juveniles faced deportation over relatively minor crimes: in one instance reported by the Times, a 14-year-old who had been in the United States since he was 2 was handed over to ICE after he took a BB gun to school to show off to friends. In another instance, a 13-year-old and his family faced deportation after he punched another boy at school and stole 46 cents.
These stories run counter to the image Harris is attempting to portray as she runs for president.
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
The Philadelphia Inquirer is reporting that Booker is putting quite a few of his eggs in South Carolina’s basket as he maps out a strategy for winning the Democratic nomination next year. With a high percentage of African American voters, Booker’s team feels his message of love can resonate in the Palmetto State.
“We have to have presidents that are about healing and bringing people together, about confronting injustice, telling the truth about racism, not participating in racist statements demeaning and degrading people like we’re seeing now from the highest office in the land,” Booker told reporters Monday.
His call frequently resonated with black voters and officials in South Carolina, who repeatedly raised concerns that people with racist beliefs have been emboldened in the last two years.
The Week Ahead for Feb. 11, 2019
We are now only 5 days away from yet another partial government shutdown this year as bipartisan negotiations over border security have reportedly broken down. The Senate will vote to confirm William Barr this week. The House Judiciary Committee will have a full hearing on the oversight of the Trump Administration’s so-called family separation policy. President Trump will host his first 2020 campaign rally in El Paso, Texas at the same time as former Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s March For Truth. Later in the week the President will meet with the President and First Lady of Colombia.
Monday, February 11
Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) delivers his State of the District address to update constituents, students, and elected officials on the future of North Jersey jobs, education, and the economy.
Democrats Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) and New Jersey Reps. Bill Pascrell Jr., Frank Pallone Jr., and Andy Kim outline bipartisan, bicameral legislation to fully restore the federal State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction.
Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-NJ) will attend a Press Club event on ‘Using Sanctions to Protect Journalists’ at the National Press Club in Washington, DC
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) will attend a forum at Morris College in Sumter, SC
Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) will host the March for Truth: ‘Stop the Wall, Stop the Lies,’ hosted by Women’s March El Paso, to coincide with President Donald Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ rally in the city
President Trump will host a rally in El Paso
Tuesday, February 12
Howard Schultz will attend a CNN Town Hall
House Judiciary members will hold a full committee hearing on oversight of the Trump Administration’s family separation policy in the Rayburn House Office Building in Washington, DC
Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) will attend a ASMSU Political Action Meet and Greet at Montana State Capital in Helena, MT
Tom Steyer will attend a town hall in Springfield, MA
Wednesday, February 13
Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) will speak at an event in Manchester, NH
Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) office visit Grand Rapids, MI
DNC Chair Tom Perez, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) will attend the IWillVote Gala in Washington, DC
Schultz will attend a book tour stop at The Parkway Central Library in Philadelphia, PA
Trump addresses the Major County Sheriffs and Major Cities Chiefs Association Joint Conference.
Thursday, February 14
The DNC will host its winter meeting at the Marriott Marquis in Washington, DC
Hickenlooper will speak at an event in New Hampshire
Schultz will attend a book tour stop at Sixth & I Historic Synagogue in Washington, DC
Friday, February 15
The DNC continues its winter meeting at the Marriott Marquis in Washington, DC
Former Vice President Joe Biden will attend the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) will attend campaign events in South Carolina
Stacey Abrams will speak at a discussion on race and power at The Brookings Institute in Washington, DC
Booker will attend a Happy Hour at PJ Ryan’s at The Rock in Newark, NJ
Saturday, February 16
The DNC continues its winter meeting at the Marriott Marquis in Washington, DC
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) will attend an organizing event at Central Gwinnett High School in Lawrenceville, GA
Biden will attend the Munich Security Conference at the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany
Kamala Harris will attend campaign events in South Carolina
The Political Edge: A Snapshot Of The 2020 Electorate
In this week’s edition of The Political Edge, we review a new Pew Research study on the 2020 electorate, recap a McClatchy analysis showing that 2020 Democratic presidential candidates are vying for the same high-dollar donors, and continue to examine the year-end fundraising reports that were released last week.
The 2020 Electorate
With the 2020 election on the horizon, Pew Research Center conducted a study looking the 2020 voting electorate. Their analysis shows several surprising trends that may be useful for campaigns to keep in mind as they gear up for next year.
Young Voters: In 2020, members of Generation X, Millennials and Generation Z will account for 62% of the electorate, the study shows (Gen X – 25%; Millennial – 27%; Gen Z – 10%). Generation Z (those born after 1996) is expected to make up more than 10% of the 2020 electorate, surpassing the elderly Silent Generation for the first time. Generation Z is also both the most ethnically diverse and best-educated age cohort in American history — only 55% of that generation is white, compared with 74% of the Baby Boomer generation.
Baby Boomers: By contrast, the Baby Boom generation is beginning to lose political clout. Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, will make up 28% of the electorate, still the largest generation by population but only narrowly edging out Millennials. Baby Boomers and older generations are expected to account for fewer than four-in-ten eligible voters in 2020. This is a significant change from 2000, when nearly seven-in-ten eligible voters (68%) were Boomers, Silents or members of the Greatest Generation.
Ethnicities: According to the study, one-third of all eligible voters will be nonwhite — a new high. Approximately 10% of potential voters are expected to have been born abroad, up from 6% in 2000. For the first time, Hispanic voters are expected to be the largest nonwhite portion of the electorate at 13.3%, overtaking black voters who are projected to make up 12.5% of the voting pool. That’s a big ongoing shift from 2000, when Hispanic voters accounted for just 7.4 percent of the electorate. Asian voters are projected to make up 4.7 percent of the vote in 2020, up from 2.5 percent in 2000.
2020 Democrats Vying For The Same Donor Pool
As more Democrats enter the 2020 presidential fray, it looks like there is going to be a fight over the limited pool of high-dollar donors. According to a new McClatchy analysis of campaign finance data, the Democrats vying to take on President Donald Trump have hundreds of donors in common. Below are some key takeaways from their analysis.
“More than 1,500 donors have at some point thrown cash to three or more of the current or prospective Democratic contenders – collectively giving more than $9 million to their campaigns and committees.”
“No Democratic presidential contender took in more money from this group of donors than New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who collected $2 million over the course of her political career.”
“Sen. Elizabeth Warren was supported by the largest number of donors, more than half of whom contributed to her campaigns. Warren also shared the most donors in common with other candidates, having received donations from more than 200 donors who also gave to fellow Sens. Sherrod Brown, Bernie Sanders and Gillibrand.”
“The group of donors includes a mix of big names, such as singers Barbra Streisand and Nancy Sinatra. There is also J.J. Abrams, who is directing the latest installment of the Star Wars series, and Adam McKay, who directed Anchorman. And there are numerous billionaires, including former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, real estate developer Eli Broad and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman.”
House: Year-End Money Fundraising Analysis
Last week, candidates and members of Congress were required to file year-end fundraising reports with the Federal Election Commission. As other political analysts have had a chance to look over the data, several observations have been made. Roll Call’s Bridget Bowman noted that “many Democrats expected to be top Republican targets in 2020 ended last year with depleted campaign coffers.” She notes that “of the 23 freshmen in districts Trump won in 2016, 16 had less than $100,000 on hand at the end of the year. On average, these 23 freshmen had roughly $88,000 in the bank.”
Noah Rudnick at Decision Desk HQ crunched the final numbers and came up with several superlatives:
Outspending The Competition: “First up is wine distributor David Trone in Maryland’s 6th, who outspent his opponent by $15.9 million, more than the 62 cheapest House races combined. After spending $12 million in 2016 just to lose in a primary where one of his first events was a meet and greet outside of the district, Trone poured his heart and soul and deep pockets into this one to ensure a victory. Even this may be short-lived though, as the Supreme Court takes a look at his seat with a high chance of dismantling it next cycle.”
Most Spent: “The honor for most spent in a campaign this cycle, however, comes from Katie Hill, who knocked off incumbent Steve Knight in California’s 25th district by 8.7%. Her campaign plus Democratic outside spending ended up putting $22 million in total which comes out to about $165 per vote. This is more overall spending than 8 presidential contenders’ campaigns and roughly the same cash per vote as Rand Paul.”
Biggest Flop: “The dubious distinction of biggest flop goes to Pennsylvania’s 1st Democratic candidate Scott Wallace, who spent the most money on a losing campaign, just over $101 per vote and $16.3 million total while failing to capture the Bucks County-dominated seat. This had more even spending overall, but Wallace self-funded while outside groups rushed in to back his opponent from getting too overspent.”
Most Efficient: “The most efficient candidate was Texas’ 24th Democratic candidate Jan McDowell, who only spent $93,380, one of the lowest candidate totals, but rode Beto-mania to losing the contest by just under 3%-an incredible 75 cents per vote in the end. While this is an impressive performance, the lackluster fundraising and spending may mean McDowell is not in a strong position with the national party to run again in 2020, if this race gets attention.”
Booker Jumps In, Beto’s Stock is Falling, Harris Racks Up Endorsements: 2020 Dems
Democrats gained one more official candidate in the 2020 presidential field last week when Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) made it official. He quickly announced a series of early primary state hires as a show of strength in state likes Iowa and South Carolina.
Meanwhile, some of the air appears to have come out of the Beto O’Rourke trial balloon, as staffers and backers begin to look at other campaigns to join.
For those stories and more, check out AR Intel’s weekly 2020 Movers & Shakers post:
Fmr. Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX)
Is O’Rourke’s stock falling? That’s the premise of a new McClatchy report, which found that “the early excitement is dissipating” for an O’Rourke 2020 campaign. The argument? O’Rourke had nothing to lose by running against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in deep red Texas. He raised vast amounts of money, but that could dry up when he’s challenging fellow Democrats in a presidential primary.
“He’s kind of a house of cards,” one Dem operative who worked on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign said.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Warren, who announced on Dec. 31 she was forming an exploratory committee for president, is expected to make it official on Saturday during an event in Lawrence, Mass. For all intents and purposes, Warren is already in the presidential primary contest, but she plans to kick off an aggressive tour of early primary states following the event on Saturday. Warren is expected in New Hampshire later that same day, then will head to Iowa for a trio of events on Sunday, followed by visits to South Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and California “in the coming weeks as part of her organizing tour,” per Mass Live.
On another note, former Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) told the Boston Globe that he can’t endorse Warren, but he’ll do anything he can, short of that, to help her win the nomination.
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ)
Booker made it official on Friday, releasing a highly polished video and sitting for a series of interviews with national outlets. The announcement came as little surprise, and he’s spent the past few days announcing major staffing moves.
He hired Christale Spain to serve as his South Carolina state director and Clay Middleton to sever as his senior adviser. In Iowa, he hired Mike Frosolone to be his state director and Jim O’Hern to serve as senior adviser.
Fmr. HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX)
Castro made news on Friday by being the first 2020 Democratic candidate to call on Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D-VA) to resign after a disturbing and racist photograph was revealed to have been on his medical school yearbook page. “It doesn’t matter if he is a Republican or a Democrat. This behavior was racist and unconscionable. Governor Northam should resign.”
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
Harris has picked up an impressive number of congressional endorsements, the most of any candidate so far. Freshman Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA) endorsed Harris last week during an appearance on MSNBC. That endorsement followed that of Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA), who endorsed Harris a day earlier.
Harris also picked up the backing of a much lesser-known but no less significant benefactor: Susie Tompkins Buell, a longtime Hillary Clinton confidant and major donor and fundraiser. “I was not planning on having any strong feelings about the 2020 elections this early in the cycle with many other hopefuls yet to announce,” she said in a statement. “But Senator Harris’s campaign rollout has been so strong and so encouraging that I am compelled to get behind her now.”
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Brown kicked off his “Dignity of Work” tour last week, with stops in his home state of Ohio, as well as the early Democratic primary state of Iowa. During a stop in Iowa, a farmer asked Brown about his position on tariffs. “Full disclosure, I supported the tariffs originally,” he said, adding that they should been used as a short-term negotiating tool. “Trump has made them a long-term trade policy because he’s not doing very good negotiations with China.”
The Week Ahead for Feb. 4, 2019
It’s a busy week in Washington. President Trump will deliver the State of the Union address on Tuesday followed by the Democratic response from Stacey Abrams. On Thursday he delivers remarks at the 2019 National Prayer Breakfast, and attorney general nominee, Bill Barr, is expected to receive a committee vote.
The House will vote this week on the Veterans’ Access to Child Care Act. The House Ways and Means Committee will hold a hearing on presidential tax returns. The House Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing with Acting Attorney General Matthew Whittaker. The Senate will vote on Monday “to adopt the bipartisan McConnell amendment to S1, the Strengthening America’s Security in the Middle East Act.
Monday, February 4
Senate is back in session
Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) will attend a rally for Montana’s future leaders at The Governor’s Reception Room at the Montana Capitol in Helena, MT
Howard Schultz will attend a book tour stop at VenueSIX10 at 610 S Michigan Avenue in Chicago, IL
Tuesday, February 5
President Trump will deliver the State Of The Union address at the U.S. Capitol
Stacey Abrams, former Georgia gubernatorial candidate, will deliver the Democratic response to the State of the Union
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) will attend the State of the Union with air traffic control specialist Trisha Pesiri-Dybvik at the US Capitol in Washington, DC
Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) will attend Oprah’s SuperSoul Conversation in Times Square, New York City, NY
Howard Schultz will attend a book tour stop at the Brattle Theatre in Cambridge, MA
Wednesday, February 6
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) will attend the National Rural Health Association Policy Institute at the Omni Shoreham Hotel in Washington, DC
Trump has dinner with faith leaders.
Thursday, February 7
Trump delivers remarks at the 2019 National Prayer Breakfast and has lunch with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Harris will attend a reception in Midtown New York, NY
Friday, February 8
The House Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing with Acting Attorney General Matthew Whittaker at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) will attend an event in Mason City, IA and a roundtable in Waterloo, IA
Saturday, February 9
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) will make a presidential announcement in Lawrence, MA
Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA) will attend the Young Women Run Atlanta Event at Agnes Scott College in Decatur, GA
Booker will attend a forum in Des Moines, IA
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will attend The Granite Slate Awards at the Currier Museum in Manchester, NH
Sunday, February 10
Warren will attend an organizing event at the Veterans Memorial Building in Des Moines, IA; an organizing event at the Iowa Memorial Union at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, IA; and a roundtable discussion at The Mississippi Valley Fairgrounds in Davenport, IA
Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) will attend a town hall at Richland College in Dallas, TX