On Monday, the DCCC announced they intend to target (at least) 33 seats in the 2020 election. With President Trump at the top of the ballot in 2020, Democrats will try to defend and grow their House majority after gaining it last year for the first time since 2011. To accompany the announcement, AR Intel has put together an overview of what kind of districts Democrats appear to be targeting next year. Many of the seats listed by the DCCC are in suburban areas where the 2018 election was decided by 5 points or less.
Below are some top line bits of information gleaned from the data followed by a spreadsheet with the complete data.
DCCC Round I Target Info
Most Targeted State: The state with the most targeted districts is Texas, with 6 seats. Democrats are targeting 4 seats in New York and 3 seats in both Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
PVI: There is only one member Democrats are targeting whose seat has a Dem-leaning PVI: NY-24, represented by John Katko, has a D+3 PVI. 26 seats have a PVI ranging from R+1 to R+9, and 11 seats have a PVI of R+5 or less.
2018 Margins: 22 of the 33 seats were decided by 5 points or less in 2018. All but 2 seats were decided by a single digit margin last year.
Trump/Clinton Districts: There are 16 districts that President Trump carried by single digits. There are only 3 districts currently held by Republicans that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 (NY-24, PA-01, and TX-23), and Democrats are targeting all three.
2016–2018 Swing: Last year, Republicans under-performed Trump in the targeted districts by an average of 5.4 points. There are only 5 Republicans that over-performed Trump in 2018: Reps. David Schweikert (AZ-06), Susan Brooks (IN-05), Will Hurd (TX-23), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01), and John Katko (NY-24).
Ratings: All 4 seats rated as “Republican toss up” by the Cook Political Report are being targeted by the DCCC. There are 14 seats rated as “lean Republican,” 12 rated as “likely Republican,” and 3 rated as “safe Republican.”
Suburban/Rural: CityLab considers 19 of the seats “dense” or “sparse suburban” and 3 of the seats “pure rural.” The remaining 11 seats are considered a “rural-suburban mix.”
Region: 8 districts being targeted are in the Southeast. There are 7 seats targeted each in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southwest. 4 seats are located on the west coast.
|District||Incumbent||PVI||2018 Margin||2016 Trump Margin||Swing Vs. 2016||Cook Rating||Sabato Rating||District Type|
|AZ-06||David Schweikert||R+9||10.4||9.8||0.6||Likely R||Likely R||Dense Suburban|
|CA-22||Devin Nunes||R+8||5.4||9.3||-3.9||Likely R||Likely R||Dense Suburban|
|CA-50||Duncan Hunter||R+11||3.4||15||-11.6||Lean R||Likely R||Dense Suburban|
|CO-03||Scott Tipton||R+6||8||11.9||-3.9||Safe R||Likely R||Pure Rural|
|FL-15||Ross Spano||R+6||6.0||10.0||-4.0||Lean R||Lean R||Sparse Suburban|
|FL-18||Brian Mast||R+5||8.6||9.2||-0.6||Safe R||Likely R||Sparse Suburban|
|GA-07||Rob Woodall||R+9||0.2||6.4||-6.2||Toss Up||Toss Up||Sparse Suburban|
|IA-04||Steve King||R+11||3.3||27.1||-23.8||Likely R||Likely R||Pure Rural|
|IL-13||Rodney Davis||R+3||0.8||5.3||-4.5||Lean R||Lean R||Rural-Suburban Mix|
|IN-05||Susan Brooks||R+9||13.5||11.7||1.8||Safe R||Safe R||Sparse Suburban|
|KY-06||Andy Barr||R+9||3.2||15.3||-12.1||Likely R||Likely R||Rural-Suburban Mix|
|MI-06||Fred Upton||R+4||4.6||8.4||-3.8||Likely R||Lean R||Rural-Suburban Mix|
|MN-01||Jim Hagedorn||R+5||0.5||14.8||-14.3||Likely R||Likely R||Rural-Suburban Mix|
|MO-02||Ann Wagner||R+8||4.0||10.3||-6.3||Lean R||Lean R||Dense Suburban|
|NC-02||George Holding||R+7||5.5||11.5||-6.0||Lean R||Likely R||Rural-Suburban Mix|
|NC-09||VACANT||R+8||N/A||12.0||N/A||Toss Up||Toss Up||Sparse Suburban|
|NC-13||Ted Budd||R+6||6.0||9.2||-3.2||Likely R||Likely R||Rural-Suburban Mix|
|NE-02||Don Bacon||R+4||2.0||2.2||-0.2||Lean R||Toss Up||Dense Suburban|
|NY-01||Lee Zeldin||R+5||4.1||12.2||-8.1||Likely R||Lean R||Sparse Suburban|
|NY-02||Peter King||R+3||6.2||8.9||-2.7||Likely R||Likely R||Dense Suburban|
|NY-24||John Katko||D+3||5.3||-3.6||8.9||Likely R||Lean R||Rural-Suburban Mix|
|NY-27||Chris Collins||R+11||0.4||24.3||-23.9||Lean R||Likely R||Pure Rural|
|OH-01||Steve Chabot||R+5||4.4||6.6||-2.2||Lean R||Lean R||Sparse Suburban|
|PA-01||Brian Fitzpatrick||R+1||2.5||-2||4.5||Lean R||Toss Up||Sparse Suburban|
|PA-10||Scott Perry||R+6||2.6||8.9||-6.3||Lean R||Lean R||Sparse Suburban|
|PA-16||Mike Kelly||R+8||4.3||19.9||-15.6||Likely R||Likely R||Rural-Suburban Mix|
|TX-10||Michael McCaul||R+9||4.3||9.1||-4.8||Lean R||Lean R||Rural-Suburban Mix|
|TX-21||Chip Roy||R+10||2.6||9.9||-7.3||Lean R||Lean R||Dense Suburban|
|TX-22||Pete Olson||R+10||4.9||7.8||-2.9||Lean R||Lean R||Sparse Suburban|
|TX-23||Will Hurd||R+1||0.4||-3.5||3.9||Toss Up||Toss Up||Rural-Suburban Mix|
|TX-24||Kenny Marchant||R+9||3.1||6.2||-3.1||Toss Up||Lean R||Dense Suburban|
|TX-31||John Carter||R+10||2.9||12.5||-9.6||Lean R||Lean R||Sparse Suburban|
|WA-03||Jaime Herrera Beutler||R+4||5.3||7.4||-2.1||Likely R||Lean R||Rural-Suburban Mix|