Blue Wave? A Trio of New Senate Polls Throws Cold Water on That Notion
A president’s first midterm is often used as a “check” on that president’s power, typically in the form of voters electing members from the opposing party to positions in Congress. A “wave” election occurs when one party broadly sweeps another out of power, and Democrats are hoping for a “blue wave” in 2018.
But a slew of new Senate polls released this week demonstrates just how difficult it will be for Democrats to accomplish “wave” status. To see the polls and analysis, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel!
The Top 10 Red State Democrats in Online Fundraising This July
Every dollar counts in a political campaign, and that’s never truer than in the final months of a campaign. Red state Democrats are doing everything they can to raise money to preserve their seats in Congress, and FEC data filed by ActBlue, the Democrats’ online fundraising platform, shows us exactly how much they raised in the month of July.
Whereas voters would normally not get an opportunity to see how online fundraising is doing among these senators, ActBlue’s filings give us a sneak peek on how Q3 fundraising is going for these Democrats.
To see a breakdown of who raised what, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel here!
Primary Recap: What Happened in Connecticut, Minnesota, & Wisconsin
Tuesday night marked yet another busy primary day across the country, as voters flocked to the polls in states like Connecticut, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
Leah Vukmir defeated Kevin Nicholson in an at-times contentious Republican primary for Senate in Wisconsin. For details on that race, along with the Minnesota Senate race, and house races in all three states, become an AR Intel Insider and gain full access to analysis pieces just like this one!
Senate Democrats’ Q2 Fundraising Numbers
Red state Democrats will need all the help they can get in the final months leading up to the midterm elections this November. AR Intel has been consistently tracking the fundraising totals of Senate Democrats running in states won by President Trump in the 2016 election.
Many of these incumbents are running for their third or fourth term, but few have faced an environment as challenging as this one. Trump won several of the states that these Democrats represent by larger than 20-point margins.
So, how well did Democrats do in the second quarter of 2018? To find out and get exclusive access to AR Intel’s Q2 fundraising infographic, sign up today!
Axios: Brutal poll: Democrats’ Senate dream slips away
To win the Senate, Democrats need to keep all 10 seats they’re defending in states that President Trump won in 2016 — plus pick up two more seats.
Why it matters: That’s not happening. A new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll of key states shows Dems would lose three of those red-state seats while picking up two GOP seats — still short of the majority.
To take a look at that poll and its findings, become an AR Intel Insider today!
SCOTUS Nomination (So Far): By The Numbers
President Trump will announce his nomination to the Supreme Court to the nation Monday evening. While this will put to rest the rampant speculation about who he will ultimately select, it will set off a furious campaign by outside groups to sway so-called red state Democrats to either support or oppose the nominee. The same could be true of two Republican senators, as well.
AR Intel broke down the numbers — to see our findings, become an Insider by signing up for a 7-day free trial today!
The AR Intel Week Ahead: 07-09-18
Buckle up for a wild week in Washington!
President Trump will announce his SCOTUS nomination in a press conference at 9PM Monday. He will then head to the NATO summit in Brussels. While abroad, Trump will meet with Theresa May and have a one-on-one with Putin.
In addition to responding to the news of Trump’s Supreme Court pick, the Senate will focus on a range of topics this week, including taking up NDAA, the Farm Bill, and minibus spending bills.
Should Democrats Be Worried About Tammy Baldwin’s Favorability Rating?
In March, AR Intel took a closer look at the past two years’ worth of polls from the well-respected Marquette Law School and specifically the Wisconsin voters’ views of Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI).
At that time, Baldwin’s unfavorability rating was steadily increasing from just 33 percent who had an unfavorable view of the senator in June 2016 to 39 percent in February 2018.
A new Marquette University Law School poll was released on Wednesday, and it’s not good news for Baldwin. To learn more, start your 7-day free trial of AR Intel today!
Morning Consult’s May Midterm Polling Update: By The Numbers
Morning Consult published a series of new polling numbers that track President Trump’s approval rating, the generic congressional ballot, approval of incumbent senators, and top policy issues.
AR Intel distilled the numbers and broke everything down. To see that analysis, become an AR Intel Insider today!
Senate Democrats’ Q1 Fundraising Numbers
In a midterm election cycle that typically favors the party not holding the White House, fundraising will be one barometer to measure whether that dynamic holds true in 2018. However, even with those potential electoral headwinds, Democrats will be defending 10 Senate seats located in states President Trump won in 2016.
To see a full list of Democrats’ 2018 Q1 fundraising and cash on hand, become and AR Intel subscriber today!