What Went Wrong? 3 Major Factors That Led to Joe Donnelly’s Defeat
Nearly a week after the 2018 midterm election, votes continue to be counted in races across the country. Although Democrats took back control of the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans are poised keep control of the Senate, due in part to decisive wins in the Midwest.
On Friday, AR Intel broke down the contributing factors that led to Claire McCaskill’s loss in Missouri. Today, we continue our series and cover what went wrong for Indiana’s Joe Donnelly. If you want access to this series and its analysis, sign up today for a free trial of AR Intel by clicking here.
Top Counties to Watch on Election Night 2018 (Part 1)
Election night can be overwhelming. Polls close at different times across the country, and in some cases, different times across the same state. With Senate, gubernatorial, House, and state legislative race results coming in simultaneously, it can be difficult to know where to look for early indicators of how the night may go.
AR Intel went state by state and highlighted the most important counties to watch in each key Senate state. We’ve broken down the results into two posts – the first below, posted on Monday, and the second will go up Tuesday morning.
If you want to learn about the key swing counties and Dem/GOP strongholds in each key Senate state, subscriber to AR Intel today! Sign up for free and enjoy a 7-day trial on us!
Will This Disastrous Debate Moment Sink Donnelly in Indiana?
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) stepped in it Tuesday night during a debate with his political rivals, Republican Mike Braun and independent candidate Lucy Brenton.
Will it have a serious impact on the results of the race? Let’s take a look.
A look at the current state of the race shows that the polls are trending away from Donnelly. A poll conducted in early October showed the incumbent senator up 4 points on Braun. Another showed Donnelly up 1 percentage point. But polls conducted in mid- to late-October showed the Republican Braun surging ahead of Donnelly by 3- and 4-point margins. The independent Brenton earns anywhere from 3 to 8 percent support in these polls.
The issues in the race are not unlike many other races across the country. Topics like tax cuts and health care are commonplace in stump speeches and in campaign ads. Another hot topic in the race is outsourcing. Donnelly and Braun have thrown barbs at each other on that front since the very beginning.
Then came Donnelly’s debate flub Tuesday night. To see video of Donnelly’s remark, as well as a transcript, and analysis, sign up for a free trial of AR Intel today!
SENATE POLL ROUND-UP: Republicans Ahead in Indiana, Missouri
It’s no surprise that this week, the last one before the midterm elections on November 6, contained a whole slew of new polls focused on Senate races. Early voting is already underway in many states, and pollsters are now asking respondents if they have already voted, in addition to their candidate preferences.
Republicans are coming on strong in Indiana and Missouri, while Florida remains as close as ever. Meanwhile, Republicans are within striking distance in Arizona and Montana.
Want to see the polls? Take a quick minute and sign up for AR Intel. It’s free to start!
Senate Democrats’ Q3 Fundraising Totals & Cash on Hand
The Federal Election Commission’s (FEC) final deadline before Election Day has come and gone, meaning we now know exactly what Senate Democrats in battleground states raised and spent in the third quarter of the year. It also means we know how much they had in the bank at the start of the final month of the campaign.
Democrats in Ohio and Missouri took the top spots for each of the fundraising categories in AR Intel’s breakdown.
To see the full breakdown, sign up for a free trial of AR Intel today!
Senate Poll Round-Up: Republicans Ahead in AZ, NV, TN, Tied in MO
It’s been another week and another flurry of Senate polls! By far Arizona was the most polled state this week with four newly released polls in the past seven days. The most recent poll shows Republican Martha McSally leading her Democrat opponent.
Republicans are also leading in contests in Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. And keep a close eye on Missouri – the latest poll, conducted by Fox News, shows Republican Josh Hawley tied with Democrat Claire McCaskill. But the RealClearPolitics polling average now favors Hawley, meaning that the contest could be trending in the Republican’s direction.
To see the full slate of Senate poll results, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel today!
AR Intel’s 2018 Midterm Debate Look Ahead
It’s officially debate season! House and Senate candidates across the country are taking the debate stage, looking into television camera lenses, and telling voters what exactly it is they will do in office.
Given the sheer number of closely-watched races, let alone the number of debates for each race, AR Intel compiled a list of debates in some of the most critical races this fall. Take a look below of October’s “Must See TV” debates, and let us know in the comments section if we missed one important to you!
To view the AR Intel debate look ahead, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel today!
The Top 10 Red State Democrats in Online Fundraising This July
Every dollar counts in a political campaign, and that’s never truer than in the final months of a campaign. Red state Democrats are doing everything they can to raise money to preserve their seats in Congress, and FEC data filed by ActBlue, the Democrats’ online fundraising platform, shows us exactly how much they raised in the month of July.
Whereas voters would normally not get an opportunity to see how online fundraising is doing among these senators, ActBlue’s filings give us a sneak peek on how Q3 fundraising is going for these Democrats.
To see a breakdown of who raised what, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel here!
THE AR INTEL WEEK AHEAD: 08-13-18
The President returns to Washington, DC this week, ready to advance his Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Judge Kavanaugh will meet with two key red state Democrats on Wednesday, Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) and Joe Donnelly (D-IN). While liberal efforts to stall Kavanaugh’s nomination struggle to get off the ground, Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has announced that Kavanaugh’s Senate confirmation hearings will begin September 4.
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SBA List’s Mallory Quigley: Trump is the Most Pro-Life President We’ve Ever Seen
With Republican majorities in the House and Senate, and a Republican president in the White House, you might think the Susan B. Anthony (SBA) List, a pro-life non-profit based in Washington, D.C., is comfortable with the gains they’ve made in the past few elections. The truth is, with a pro-life president in office, they’re working to get as much done as they possibly can.
That’s according to Mallory Quigley, the group’s VP of Communications, who said SBA List is working tirelessly to get Judge Brett Kavanaugh confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court and helping to elect more pro-life legislators both in D.C. and in the states.
To find out what Quigley and her team at SBA List are doing for the SCOTUS fight, the 2018 midterms, and beyond, sign up for a 7-day free trial of AR Intel!