Two Democrats Officially Jump In, Two Others Are About To: 2020 Democrats
The Democratic presidential primary is at the point now in which candidates jumping in two by two. Over the past weekend, little-known candidates Julian Castro and Tulsi Gabbard took the plunge. Meanwhile, two much better-known candidates are expected to make similar moves this coming weekend.
For the latest on what’s happening in the increasingly crowded race to take on President Donald Trump, check out this week’s 2020 Movers and Shakers:
Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX)
He’s in, whether anybody cares or not. Castro made it official in his home town of San Antonio over the weekend. As one of the youngest candidates in the 2020 presidential field, Castro will be making a play for the old Obama coalition: young, diverse constituencies who see him as the future of the party and country. And as likely the only Latino in the race, he could have an advantage among minority communities in key states like Texas and California, both of which vote early in the primary calendar.
But Castro’s biggest disadvantage could come from his neighbor to the west on I-10. Should former Rep. Beto O’Rourke jump in the presidential race, it could take some of the wind out of Castro’s sails. O’Rourke would trump Castro on name ID and his proven fundraising capabilities would potentially limit Castro, particularly among Texas donors.
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI)
She’s in, too! Gabbard, 37, revealed over the weekend that she is jumping in the presidential fray as well. Perhaps best known for being a vocal Bernie Sanders backer in 2016, Gabbard is an Iraq War veteran and she currently serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Like Castro, Gabbard’s candidacy is viewed as a longshot.
Not everyone in the Democratic Party applauded when Gabbard jumped in, however. Former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and former DNC Chair Howard Dean tweeted their disgust at Gabbard’s past actions, which included her flying to Syria and meeting personally with President Bashar al Assad.
Oh please. Isn’t this Assad’s ( he who commits mass murder on his own people) bestie in America? https://t.co/5MsQD00HIp
— Claire McCaskill (@clairecmc) January 12, 2019
How about regretting her views on trying to cover for Assad after he killed hundreds of Syrian civilians including children by gassing them to death. https://t.co/kdzRxj6Hqz
— Howard Dean (@GovHowardDean) January 14, 2019
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Keep your eyes peeled this weekend for an official announcement from Gillibrand. The Associated Press reported she is forming an exploratory committee and announcing her bid “in coming days.” Gillibrand’s traveling to Iowa for unspecified events, and many expect she’ll try to make her splash on the front end of the Martin Luther King, Jr. Day holiday weekend. She’s also made a series of senior staff hires in recent days, including former DCCC spokeswoman Meredith Kelly to serve as the head of Gillibrand’s communications team.
Per the Associated Press, Gillibrand may select the small city of Troy, New York as her campaign headquarters. It’s an unusual choice, but it’s not far from the international airport in Albany.
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)
The other Democrat expected to make a presidential announcement over MLK weekend is Harris, who has recently hit both coasts on a press tour promoting her new memoir and children’s book. She appeared on ABC’s “The View,” CBS’s “Late Show,” and MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” At each stop, she was asked about her presidential ambitions. Her responses when asked about running president went from “I’m not ready to make an announcement,” to “I might,” to “I’ll make it soon.”
Last week, the San Francisco Chronicle reported that Harris’s political team was eyeing both a West Coast headquarters (most likely in the San Francisco Bay area) and an east coast headquarters, potentially in Baltimore, Maryland. Insiders expect Harris to announce her 2020 plans at an event in Oakland, California, where she was born.
Former Mayor Michael Bloomberg (D-NY)
Responding to a shot leveled at him by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Bloomberg said he would certainly self-fund his campaign, should he jump into the 2020 race. At an event in Iowa last weekend, Warren ratcheted up the populist rhetoric by arguing that billionaires don’t belong in the White House.
Bloomberg also gave a time frame for his announcement, per the AP: He told reporters he won’t make a decision on a possible presidential bid for “another month or so.”
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
During an NPR interview Tuesday morning, Klobuchar told Steve Inskeep, “I’m going south for the winter,” when asked about heading to Iowa. For those geographically unaware, Iowa is due south of Klobuchar’s home state of Minnesota. Few expect Klobuchar’s announcement to come around the same time as her Senate colleagues, Gillibrand and Harris.
Fun Midwest Fact: Minnesota is like Iowa's tophat. #IACaucus
— Clay Masters (@Clay_Masters) January 15, 2019
What Went Wrong? Claire McCaskill’s 3 Biggest Mistakes
While the 2018 midterms saw Democrats retake control of the House, election night was all roses for the political left. Republicans gained seats in the Senate, won hard-fought governorships in the states, and mitigated the so-called “Blue Wave” that Democrats claimed would crash the GOP’s party.
One of the Democrats’ key losses in 2018 was Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO). AR Intel will take a closer look at what went wrong for McCaskill in Missouri below and revisit this topic for other candidates and races in the days ahead. If you want access to this series and its analysis, sign up today for a free trial of AR Intel by clicking here.
Top Counties to Watch on Election Night 2018 (Part 1)
Election night can be overwhelming. Polls close at different times across the country, and in some cases, different times across the same state. With Senate, gubernatorial, House, and state legislative race results coming in simultaneously, it can be difficult to know where to look for early indicators of how the night may go.
AR Intel went state by state and highlighted the most important counties to watch in each key Senate state. We’ve broken down the results into two posts – the first below, posted on Monday, and the second will go up Tuesday morning.
If you want to learn about the key swing counties and Dem/GOP strongholds in each key Senate state, subscriber to AR Intel today! Sign up for free and enjoy a 7-day trial on us!
SENATE POLL ROUND-UP: Republicans Ahead in Indiana, Missouri
It’s no surprise that this week, the last one before the midterm elections on November 6, contained a whole slew of new polls focused on Senate races. Early voting is already underway in many states, and pollsters are now asking respondents if they have already voted, in addition to their candidate preferences.
Republicans are coming on strong in Indiana and Missouri, while Florida remains as close as ever. Meanwhile, Republicans are within striking distance in Arizona and Montana.
Want to see the polls? Take a quick minute and sign up for AR Intel. It’s free to start!
Senate Democrats’ Q3 Fundraising Totals & Cash on Hand
The Federal Election Commission’s (FEC) final deadline before Election Day has come and gone, meaning we now know exactly what Senate Democrats in battleground states raised and spent in the third quarter of the year. It also means we know how much they had in the bank at the start of the final month of the campaign.
Democrats in Ohio and Missouri took the top spots for each of the fundraising categories in AR Intel’s breakdown.
To see the full breakdown, sign up for a free trial of AR Intel today!
‘Chuck Schumer’s Dark Money Man’ is Following Claire McCaskill Around Missouri
A man claiming to be Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s “dark money” man is following Sen. Claire McCaskill around Missouri, according to video obtained by AR Intel.
To watch video of Schumer’s “dark money man” asking McCaskill questions about accepting “dark money,” sign up for a free trial of AR Intel! Subscribers get access to video just like this, polling, and other important political intelligence. Sign up today!
AR Intel Week Ahead: 10-15-18
With just three weeks until Election Day, debate season is in full gear in House and Senate races. Senate debates for Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, and Wisconsin are all taking place this week, along with key House races in Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, and Nebraska, among many others.
Meanwhile, President Trump is hitting the road on behalf of candidates across the country. He’s in Florida Monday, surveying damage done to the panhandle coast by Hurricane Michael, and then handing out the medal of honor on Wednesday. He’ll hold rallies in Montana and Arizona later in the week.
For further details on these updates and much more, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel!
Senate Poll Round-Up: Republicans Ahead in AZ, NV, TN, Tied in MO
It’s been another week and another flurry of Senate polls! By far Arizona was the most polled state this week with four newly released polls in the past seven days. The most recent poll shows Republican Martha McSally leading her Democrat opponent.
Republicans are also leading in contests in Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas. And keep a close eye on Missouri – the latest poll, conducted by Fox News, shows Republican Josh Hawley tied with Democrat Claire McCaskill. But the RealClearPolitics polling average now favors Hawley, meaning that the contest could be trending in the Republican’s direction.
To see the full slate of Senate poll results, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel today!
AR Intel’s 2018 Midterm Debate Look Ahead
It’s officially debate season! House and Senate candidates across the country are taking the debate stage, looking into television camera lenses, and telling voters what exactly it is they will do in office.
Given the sheer number of closely-watched races, let alone the number of debates for each race, AR Intel compiled a list of debates in some of the most critical races this fall. Take a look below of October’s “Must See TV” debates, and let us know in the comments section if we missed one important to you!
To view the AR Intel debate look ahead, sign up for a free 7-day trial of AR Intel today!
POLL: Hawley Leads McCaskill By 8 Points in Missouri Senate Race
Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R-MO) has pulled into a commanding lead over Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), according to a new poll released by Missouri Rising Action.
But only AR Intel subscribers are able to see the results of the poll. To sign up to become an AR Intel Insider, click here.